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(NewsNation) — Most Americans aren’t excited about a potential rematch between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, but with Trump’s victory in New Hampshire, a 2020 repeat is becoming increasingly likely.
Several recent polls have shown Trump leading Biden, but with consumers starting to feel better about the economy, it remains to be seen what could change between now and election day.
“We are 9 1/2 months from people being able to vote — that is an eternity in terms of what can happen and not happen and people changing opinions,” said Scott Tranter, director of data science at Decision Desk HQ.
When it comes to the presidential election, 40% of Americans say the economy is the most important issue in determining who they vote for, according to a NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ poll. Immigration (17%) and abortion (8%) were the second and third most common responses.
There were partisan differences, however, with Republican respondents more likely to say immigration (31%) and Democrats more likely to say abortion (14%).
Here’s what happened while the two were in office.
Economy, inflation, debt
Trump
- Inflation
- 2017: 2.1%
- 2018: 2.4%
- 2019: 1.8%
- 2020: 1.2%
- S&P 500: +46.4% from Trump’s inauguration through Jan. 29, 2020 (first three years in office)
- Real GDP growth: +2.3% (2017), +2.9% (2018), +2.3% (2019)
- Jobs: The economy added an average of 177,000 jobs per month during Trump’s first three years in office.
- Debt: Added $8.4 trillion to the debt, which includes $3.6 trillion in COVID relief, $2.5 trillion from tax cut laws and $2.3 trillion from spending increases, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
Biden
- Inflation
- 2021: 4.7%
- 2022: 8.0%
- 2023: 4.1%
- S&P 500: +29.7% from Biden’s inauguration through Jan. 29, 2024 (first three years in office)
- Real GDP Growth: +5.9% (2021), +1.9% (2022), +2.5% (2023)
- Jobs: Employers have created an average of 409,000 positions per month during Biden’s first three years, which has been aided by a massive post-pandemic return to work.
- Debt: A preliminary analysis estimates Biden has added $4.8 trillion to the debt so far, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. That total doesn’t include the Fiscal Responsibility Act or the full impact of Biden’s various student debt relief plans.
- Signed a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure deal aimed at repairing roads and bridges, expanding public transit systems and modernizing the electrical grid, among other changes.
Taxes and tax credits
Trump
- Signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TJCA), which lowered most individual income tax rates, increased the standard deduction and cut the corporate tax rate, among other changes.
- Doubled the estate tax exemption
- Most individual provisions expire in 2025, while most business changes are permanent
Biden
- Signed the Inflation Reduction Act, which created new tax credits for electric vehicles and clean energy home improvements
- Includes $80 billion in additional funding for the IRS
- Created a new 15% minimum tax on book income for large businesses
- Biden’s 2024 budget proposal included several tax increases that would add up to $4.8 trillion in new taxes, according to the Tax Foundation.
- The major provisions are aimed at corporations and high-earners
Border crisis and immigration
Trump
- Completed 472 executive actions on immigration during his presidency
- Built hundreds of miles of fencing along the U.S.-Mexico border, although most was installed in areas where smaller barriers already existed. Mexico did not pay for those changes.
- Implemented “Migrant Protection Protocols,” also known as the “Remain in Mexico” policy, which required certain migrants to wait for U.S. hearings in Mexico.
- Invoked Title 42, a public health policy that allowed border agents to swiftly expel migrants due to COVID-19.
- Temporarily banned nationals from Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen
- Set a record-low limit for new U.S. refugees
Biden
- Monthly migrant encounters at the southern border hit a record-high 302,000 in December 2023
- Reversed several Trump-era policies: Ended “Remain in Mexico” and halted construction on the border wall
- Negotiated a deal with Mexico to restart the “Remain in Mexico” program before SCOTUS ruled the Biden administration had the authority to end the policy
- Approved further construction of a border wall in October, citing an “immediate need” for it
- Directed DHS to pause deportations of migrants who pose little or no national security risk, a policy the Supreme Court upheld
- Launched the CBP One app to streamline the processing of migrants before they arrive at the U.S. border. Migrants have reported issues with the app.
Note: Starting in March 2020, monthly totals include apprehensions and expulsions. Before that, monthly totals only include apprehensions.
Student loans
Trump
- Suspended all federal student loan payments and temporarily set interest rates to 0% during the coronavirus
- His 2018 budget proposal attempted to save $1 billion by eliminating subsidized student loans
- Trump’s 2021 budget proposal also sought to cut spending on student loan forgiveness by $170 billion
Biden
- Tried to cancel nearly $430 billion in student debt using the HEROES Act but that was struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court
- Has forgiven nearly $137 billion for more than 3.7 million student loan borrowers in the first three years of his presidency using various executive actions, according to The Hill
- Launched the SAVE repayment plan — a new income-driven repayment program that sets payments based on the borrower’s salary
Healthcare, drug prices, Medicare
Trump
- Vowed to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, also known as “Obamacare,” but efforts to overturn the law failed
- Proposed changes to cap and limit federal funding for Medicaid
- Reduced insulin costs for some Medicare beneficiaries
- Signed several executive orders aimed at reducing prescription drug prices
- Signed the CARES Act, a $2.2 trillion stimulus package in response to the economic fallout from COVID-19
Biden
- Under the Inflation Reduction Act, the Biden administration will begin price negotiations with drug manufacturers over 10 Medicare Part D drugs that cover common prescriptions including blood clots, diabetes and arthritis.
- Announced new guidance aimed at cracking down on “junk insurance” and limiting surprise medical bills
- Recently announced new actions to increase transparency and competition in the Medicare insurance market
- Signed the American Rescue Plan, a $1.9 trillion stimulus package to speed up the recovery from COVID-19
Abortion
Trump
- Appointed three people to the U.S. Supreme Court, all of whom were in the majority in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which overturned Roe v. Wade and held that the U.S. Constitution does not confer a right to abortion
- Barred organizations that provide abortion referrals from receiving federal family planning money
- Has refused to endorse a federal abortion ban on the 2024 campaign trail
Biden
- Issued guidance telling hospitals they must provide abortion services if the mother’s life is at risk, citing federal law on emergency treatment guidelines. Several lawsuits are ongoing.
- Has called on Congress to “restore the protections of Roe” and blasted the SCOTUS decision as “extreme”
- Issued an executive order aimed at making contraception more widely available and affordable
Foreign policy on Israel, China and Russia
Trump
- Withdrew U.S. from Iran nuclear deal and reinstated bank and oil sanctions
- Formally recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and moved the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv
- Became the first sitting U.S. president to visit North Korea
- U.S. signed a peace agreement with the Taliban aimed at ending the war in Afghanistan, gradually withdrawing troops from the country
- U.S. pulled out of the United Nations’ Human Rights Council and then-U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley lambasted the council for “its chronic bias against Israel.”
- Cut ties with the World Health Organization over its handling of the coronavirus pandemic
Biden
- Pulled U.S. troops out of Afghanistan, and 13 U.S. service members were killed by a suicide bomber during the withdrawal
- White House laid some of the blame on Trump for the deal he made with the Taliban
- Imposed additional sanctions on Russia following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine
- Blocked new U.S. investment in Russia and banned import of gold, diamonds, seafood and alcoholic beverages from the country
- Approved more than $75 billion in assistance to Ukraine, according to the Council on Foreign Relations
- Re-designated the Houthis as a terrorist group following attacks on U.S. military and commercial ships after previously revoking that title
- Said Israel has the right to defend itself following Hamas attacks on Oct. 7 and proposed $14 billion more in additional support while also pushing for the creation of a Palestinian state
Trade
Trump
- Withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, an Obama-era 12-country Asia-focused trade agreement
- Replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)
- Started a trade war with China, imposing retaliatory tariffs and other barriers to punish Beijing for its trade practices
Biden
- Launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF), an initiative involving 14 countries as a way to counter China’s influence in the region
- A trade deal hasn’t been finalized, and negotiations are still ongoing
The general election is still months away, with multiple campaign stops including the parties’ national conventions on the political calendar in 2024.
If another Biden-Trump general election does happen, it would be the first rematch in a presidential race in more than half a century.
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