New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been using the slogan ‘Ab ki baar, 400 paar’ less and less in public meetings, shows an analysis by ThePrint of his speeches from more than 80 public meetings since 16 March, when the Election Commission of India (ECI) announced the schedule of the ongoing general election.
For this analysis, ThePrint referred to the text of the Prime Minister’s speeches available on narendramodi.in as also his interactions with party workers through the NaMo App.
Before he made a reference to it at a public meeting in West Bengal Friday, the last time Modi spoke of ‘400 paar’ was in Madhya Pradesh’s Sagar on 24 April. This was after a gap of four days during which he addressed 10 public meetings without making any reference to the ruling NDA’s target of securing 400 parliamentary seats.
The analysis also revealed that there has been a drastic decrease in references to ‘400 paar’ in Modi’s speeches since the conclusion of the first phase of voting on 19 April — he mentioned it only on three occasions — in Sagar on 24 April, in Uttar Pradesh’s Aonla on 25 April and in West Bengal on 3 May.
Opposition parties have alleged that the call for ‘400 paar’ is a prerequisite for a change to the Constitution through a two-thirds majority in the Lok Sabha. “The poor, STs, OBCs, got several rights because of the Constitution, which gave them MGNREGA, land rights, reservation, etc. If the BJP comes to power, it will tear apart the Constitution,” Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said in Madhya Pradesh’s Bhind on 30 April.
Modi, however, launched a counter-attack on the Congress, accusing it of wanting to take away reservation for OBCs, SCs and STs and give it to Muslims. “As long as Modi is alive, there will be no reservation on the basis of religion,” the Prime Minister said in Gujarat’s Banaskantha on 1 May.
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How many times did Modi use ‘Ab ki baar, 400 paar’?
Between the announcement of the poll schedule on 16 March and the first phase of voting on 19 April, Modi addressed 45 public meetings where he mentioned ‘Ab ki baar, 400 paar’ a total of 110 times, the analysis by ThePrint shows.
The frequency of his usage of the term was highest in Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Karnataka where he used it 17, 16 and 15 times, respectively. There was, however, a noticeable decrease in the frequency of usage since 17 April.
Interesting to note also is that Modi used the slogan in 16 of the 21 public meetings he addressed just after the announcement of the poll schedule — between 16 March and 7 April.
For this analysis, ThePrint divided the 45-day period from the announcement of the poll schedule till 30 April into four periods.
In the first period, between 16 March and 26 March, Modi addressed six public meetings where he referred to ‘400 paar’ as many as 56 times.
For instance, addressing a public meeting in Telangana on 18 March, he referred to it at least 16 times.
“As 13 May is approaching, voting day is approaching, this wave of BJP in Telangana will wipe out Congress and BRS. And that is why today the whole country is saying – 4 June ko 400 paar! Election results are going to come on 4 June and that is why people are saying that 4 June ko 400 paar!”
He added, “Telangana is also saying, abki baar 400 paar! For a viksit (developed) Bharat… 400 paar! For a viksit Telangana… 400 paar! For the third largest economy… 400 paar! For the progress of the poor… 400 paar! For farmers’ welfare… 400 paar’. ”
In the second period, between 27 March and 7 April, Modi referred to the term 31 times during 11 of the 17 public meetings he addressed during this time.
The drop in frequency of usage began with the third period – between 8 April and 18 April — when Modi thundered ‘400 paar’ 23 times in only five of the 22 public meetings he addressed during this time.
In the fourth period, between 19 April and 30 April, Modi used the slogan 8 times in only three of the 36 public meetings he addressed during this time.
Opposition charge, voter turnout
BJP national spokesperson R.P. Singh told ThePrint, “You start your campaign with an election pitch and if the Opposition tries to corner you then you with another issue, you have to answer them first.”
Singh added that Modi has made the Opposition defensive, “400 paar is very much a slogan, a clarion call… now that the Opposition has raised the issue of doing away with reservation by amending the Constitution, the PM is targeting them on those issues first.”
According to a BJP leader, the shift from ‘Ab ki baar, 400 paar’ has more to do with how the Opposition has been using this ‘bogey’ to instil a fear among voters that the BJP would attempt to change the Constitution if it gets a ‘brute majority’.
“The Opposition had no agenda and they are now trying to use some of the speeches of BJP candidates to show how the BJP, if voted to power, will do away with reservation by amending the Constitution. It has become a talking point with all the (INDIA) alliance partners raising it in all their rallies,” said the senior BJP leader who did not wish to be named.
The BJP leader added, “In many rallies as well as interviews, BJP leaders have clarified that no such thing will be done but it becomes important that this narrative is not given more ammunition and while the slogan of 400 remains it need not be stressed in every public meeting.”
Another BJP leader told ThePrint that the party is also getting feedback that the cadres are “too reliant” on Modi. “They are under the impression that if things are not fine at the moment, Modi will hold a rally or roadshow in their constituency and things will change on the ground.”
The leader added, “As with the target of 400, many are under the impression that the NDA is anyway winning and are becoming a little complacent. It is important to get our voters to the polling booth and ensure that they come out in large numbers and vote for the BJP.”
Another party functionary said winning 400 seats is the target for the NDA and not the BJP alone. “It is more a slogan — ‘a rhyming’ statement — to go with ‘Abki baar, Modi sarkar’,” the functionary said, adding that the party is also concerned about the dip in voter turnout in the first two phases.
According to the ECI, the first phase witnessed a voter turnout of 66.14 percent and the second phase 66.71 percent. This marked a drop in voter turnout compared to 2019, when the voter turnout was 69.43 and 69.17 percent in the first and second phases, respectively.
Political analyst Rahul Verma told ThePrint that the drop in voter turnout could also have stemmed from the Opposition’s emphasis on its charge that the BJP intends to change the Constitution if voted to power again.
“The BJP it seems at some level has realised that this number (400) is being misconstrued to show that the party will change the Constitution since why else would it require such brute majority. Also, a realisation that perhaps BJP’s organisational machinery is not active enough and some sense of complacency might have kicked in especially after the first phase where we saw the voter turnout dip a bit — though, to be fair, phase 1 included areas which are not considered BJP’s stronghold,” he said.
(Edited by Amrtansh Arora)
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