The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the top hurricane forecasting body, published a report finding an 85% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, citing a convergence of near-historic sea temperatures and a La Niña pattern. The forecast details projections of 17 to 25 total named storms, including 8 to 13 hurricanes and 4 to 7 of the deadliest category 3, 4 and 5 hurricanes. The report outlines 70% confidence, leaving an outside chance of a less severe or much worse season. Per FOX Weather, it’s the most aggressive forecast on record.
The organization is warning Americans to remain prepared for the upcoming season, coming after the 2020, 2021, and 2023 seasons landed among the five most active on record. It urged vigilance as they roll out improvements to communications systems like an intermediate warning mechanism which will allow for more frequent updates.
“Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow,” Erik A. Hooks, deputy administrator at the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said in a statement.
In some of the most active hurricane seasons on record, like the 2020 season which saw 14 named hurricanes, only between 6-10 were predicted. The 2005 season, infamously producing Hurricane Katrina, had a prediction range of 7 to 9 hurricanes, ultimately seeing 15. The year, which saw two of the top five most intense hurricanes in recorded history by NOAA’s air pressure metric, remains the second-most active (behind 2020) and second-most costly (behind 2017) season of all time. The 2005 season did over $172 billion in damage to the United States, while the 2017 season, including the devastating Irma and Maria, cost over $295 billion.
Though the season isn’t officially slated to begin until June 1, a tropical wave, the precursor to a tropical storm, was spotted days ahead of the season’s start, ultimately posing no threat of becoming a stronger storm, WESH-2 reported.
The World Meteorological Organization also released its list of hurricane, tropical storm, or other system names for the 2024 season, providing 26 picks, A to Z, that haven’t been used to refer to especially catastrophic storms. The NOAA forecast predicts 25 storms on the high end, meaning the list is hopefully ample enough to cover all system names.