Key events
Sky News politics and business correspondent Amanda Akass says she’s been told by the leader of Somerset Council’s Conservative group that voters feel “let down” by David Warburton, the Tory MP suspended on drug allegations:
Cllr David Fothergill, leader of the Conservative group at Somerset Council tells me Tory voters on the doorstep were telling campaigners they had been let down by David Warburton- says that’s the main reason for likely Tory defeat tonight #Byelections
— Amanda Akass (@amandaakass) July 21, 2023
Warburton announced in June that he was resigning his Somerton and Frome seat.
Warburton was suspended from the party in April 2022 pending the outcome of an independent complaints and grievance scheme (ICGS) investigation into allegations of harassment and drug use.
He told the Mail on Sunday he is quitting because he feels he was denied a fair hearing by the watchdog over the claims that he made unwanted advances to two women.
LibDem candidate Sarah Dyke has arrived at the Somerton and Frome count – and she looks pretty happy:
Lib Dems 🔶 candidate Sarah Dyke has arrived at the Somerton & Frome count to cheers from Lib Dems supporters, and was embraced by Christine Jardine. pic.twitter.com/qo8LJDbQjP
— Josh Gafson (@JoshGafson1) July 21, 2023
Politico’s London deputy editor Dan Bloom has rounded up the spin ahead of tonight’s results from the Tories, Labour and the Liberal Democrats:
The spin at 10pm
CON: By-elections are rarely won by governing parties and are rarely good indicators of gen elec performance
LAB: None of these seats have ever had a Labour MP before, so were always going to be a challenge
LD: If we succeed it would mark a watershed moment
— Dan Bloom (@danbloom1) July 20, 2023
Sky News deputy political editor Sam Coates says it “seems clear” that the LibDems will win Somerton and Frome tonight. We may have confirmation (or not) of that in 30 minutes’ time.
If the Liberal Democrats win in Somerton and Frome, the Guardian’s Sammy Gecsoyler tells me, Ed Davey will become the first leader of any party since Paddy Ashdown in the 1990s to win four by-elections
Helen Pidd
Only a fool would predict the result in Selby, but it’s late and I have just had a can of full fat Coke so I will say that it is looking pretty good for Labour in the piles of ballot papers I’ve seen piling up.
Still no obvious signs of jubilation in the Labour enclave of the leisure centre canteen, but they don’t look depressed either. Time will tell.
Mabel Banfield-Nwachi
Crime also came up as a key issue in Uxbridge and South Ruislip and Shadow justice secretary Steve Reed says Danny Beales, the Labour candidate, has already delivered for the local community after a campaign to stop the closure of the local police station was successful.
“People will say they just don’t see the peace on the streets anymore,” he says.
“It doesn’t show much confidence, I think, on the part of the Conservative Party, they’re trying to avoid the top issue facing the nation.”
He said it was humbling to hear people who have never voted Labour are prepared to put their trust in Labour.
“Just three and a half years after our worst defeat, what a vindication of Keir Starmer’s leadership and where he’s taken our party and how he’s rebuilding trust with people who never would have envisaged themselves voting [for the] Labour party.”
Shadow justice secretary ‘cautiously hopeful’ in Uxbridge and South Ruislip
Mabel Banfield-Nwachi
Shadow justice secretary Steve Reed says he was cautiously hopeful for Labour’s chances in the byelection in Uxbridge and South Ruislip after being met with a warm reception on doorsteps today, but said he is not going to call it ahead of the count.
People were concerned about the cost of living, crime and Hillingdon Hospital, which is “in a state of dilapidation”, Reed says, despite the conservatives focus on the Ulez.
“There are all sorts of people that have been raising Ulez, but certainly the conservatives have tried to run the entire campaign as if this was about a single issue, but it isn’t,” Reed says.
“The issue that’s been coming up the most on the doorsteps today, just like for the whole of the five weeks that I’ve been involved, is the cost of living.”
Reed said people’s household budgets are really “pressed” at the moment and that many say they are worried about losing their homes.
“You’ve got problems like that that are directly attributable to the chaos that the government created when they crashed the economy last autumn with the mini budgets and interest rates spiralling and effectively baked in a Tory mortgage premium into people’s repayments.
“They are furious when the government has done that to them because they feel utterly betrayed by a government that they hoped was on their site as they tried to build a home for themselves or for their families.”
The declaration in Somerton and Frome could be made at 2am, much earlier than expected, Sky News reports. It is partly because voter turnout was so low – just 44.23% of voters cast a ballot.
It is currently just after 1am BST.
In case you missed it: Labour chairwoman Anneliese Dodds played down expectations after the polls closed, calling them “incredibly challenging elections” for the party.
She also told BBC Newsnight: “Whatever the result one thing is very clear, and it’s been clear to me when I’ve been speaking with people on the doorstep that there will be people in this election who will be voting Labour for the first time.
“They can see that Keir Starmer has turned the Labour Party around, that the Labour Party is in the service of working people.
“And I think that will definitely be the case whatever the eventual result from these byelections.”
Liberal Democrats are not backing down on that Somerton and Frome result:
Hear that noise?
Across the country, manufacturers of giant orange props are nervously checking their stock levels….
— Liberal Democrats (@LibDems) July 20, 2023
The Somerton and Frome turnout of 44.23% was 31.4 percentage points lower than in 2019.
Somerton and Frome, turnout:
44.23% (-31.4)— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) July 20, 2023
Labour sources say “there are grounds for optimism in Selby,” Sky News deputy political editor Sam Coates has just said.
Selby and Ainsty result will be ‘close’, says Conservative MP
Conservative MP Andrew Jones said the result in the Selby and Ainsty constituency – which the Conservatives won by more than 20,000 votes in 2019 – would be “close”.
Asked who might win, he told BBC Newsnight: “Well, who knows? We think it’s going to be very close.”
He said it felt like an “individual” byelection, as he hinted at frustration on the doors over the decision of Nigel Adams to quit as an MP and trigger a poll.
“This has felt more local, more personal. I think that’s been caused by the reason the by-election is taking place, but I think it’ll be close.”
He also urged colleagues to get behind Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in the wake of the by-elections.
“I think the public know full well that the nation is facing challenging times and internationally these are challenging times.
“So I think the message would be, we’ve just got to get our head down, work and get through this period.
“I’ve not felt any sense that the Labour Party was pulling people into them. I’ve sensed a sense of frustration, frustration particularly in the cause of this by-election.
“The sitting MP walking away has been a sense of disappointment and that’s putting it quite mildly.”
Voter turnout in the Somerton and Frome byelection was 44.23%.
Dispatch from Somerton and Frome
Sammy Gecsoyler
Ballots are still being counted in Somerton and Frome but spirits are high among the Liberal Democrats in the counting hall. “We are confident we have got a decisive victory tonight,” Christine Jardine, the Liberal Democrat MP for Edinburgh West, told the Guardian.
“If you look at what is happening here tonight, what has happened in the other by-elections that we have won in this parliament, people are unhappy with the Conservatives, they are unhappy with the way they are managing the economy, they are unhappy with mortgage rates, they are unhappy with inflation. In this part of the world they can’t get a GP, they want change.”
“This could be a significant night for British politics, its a very significant night for us. The conservatives are in trouble in all these by-elections tonight. What we are seeing is people saying enough is enough, people want change,” Jardine said.
“Tonight shows we are back in a strength and a power to be reckoned with in this part of the country again.”
When asked what change mean if they voted for the Liberal Democrats, Jardine said: “It would mean a change of government in the country. It would mean there is a strong voice in parliament for communities.
“We believe in decision making at a local level. We believe in essential things like building the right houses in the right places. We want to see people getting GP appointments in time. We want to see the NHS improve. We want to see improvements in education.”
In case you’re just joining us: less than two hours after polls closed, the Liberal Democrats claimed they had “romped home” in Somerton & Frome, overturning a Tory majority of more than 19,000.
While Labour and the Tories attempted to manage expectations in Uxbridge & South Ruislip and Selby & Ainsty.
A triple defeat for the Tories would heap pressure on the Prime Minister ahead of a general election expected next year. the Lib Dems were jubilant.
A Lib Dem spokesman said: “We’ve not just won, we’ve romped home in Somerton and Frome.
“The Conservative vote is in freefall.”
Party leader Sir Ed Davey joked: “I think we’re going to need a bigger tractor.”
Voter turnout in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Boris Johnson’s former West London constituency, voter turnout was 46.23%, according to Britain Elects – 17.3% less than in 2019.
Uxbridge & South Ruislip, turnout:
46.23% (-17.3)
31,000 votes cast— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) July 20, 2023
Dispatch from Selby count
Helen Pidd
We’re two hours into the count in the glamorous surrounds of Selby Leisure Centre and no one yet seems confident of victory. I’ve been to many counts over the years and even this early into the night you can tell already if it’s going to be a landslide. Party activists attempt to keep poker faces but they can’t hide their delight if it looks like they are going to romp to victory. There is no badly suppressed glee on show here yet. Just nervous faces as ballot verification continues.
A local Labour source who was present the last time a Labour candidate won in Selby — John Grogan, who scraped in with 467 votes in 2005, only to lose in 2010 after boundary changes — said: “It’s hard to tell but it looks ok.”
