People’s party pulls ahead of the Socialists with three-quarters of the vote counted
Just over 75% of the votes have been counted and live results published by the Spanish government continue to show a narrow gap between the Socialists and the PP.
The PP – who polls had suggested would win the election by a substantial margin – have 132 seats. The Socialists trail slightly behind at 126.
The far-right Vox party has 33 seats while the leftwing movement Sumar has 30.
The preliminary count suggests that PP and Vox together would have 165 seats – just shy of the 176 seats needed for a majority in the country’s 350-seat parliament.
With a quarter of the vote left to count, the results could still increase or decrease by a handful of seats.
Key events
Spanish radio station Cadena SER has published video from the PP headquarters in Madrid.
It shows people milling outside as results roll in. After weeks of polls suggesting the PP would win the election by a significant margin, the mood of supporters appears to be more cautious than jubilant:
Narrow gap between Socialists and PP with just over half the votes counted
We now have slightly more than 55% of the votes counted and live results published by the Spanish government show a very narrow gap between the Socialists and the PP.
The PP – widely tipped to win the most seats in this snap election – have 130. The Socialists are closely behind them with 129.
The far-right Vox party has 33 seats while leftwing movement Sumar has 30.
This suggests that the PP-Vox together would have 163 seats – a result that falls short of the 176 seats needed for a majority in the country’s 350-seat parliament.
These are still early results, however, so they could change as more votes are counted.
In past elections the variation over the course of the count has not tended to be very large, but it could increase or decrease by a handful of seats, leading to changes in the balance of power.
Socialists strengthen with third of votes counted
With slightly more than 33% of votes counted, live results published by the Spanish government suggests that Socialists and the PP are tied at 131 seats.
The far-right Vox party has 32 seats while leftwing movement Sumar has 28.
This suggests that the PP-Vox together would have 163 seats, while the Socialists and Sumar would have 159. At least 176 seats are needed for a majority in the country’s 350-seat parliament.
These are preliminary results, however, so they could change significantly in the coming hours.
In past elections the variation over the course of the count has not tended to be very large, but it could increase or decrease by a handful of seats and alter the balance of power.
As we wait for the results of Spain’s snap election, a reminder of the potential outcomes:
Polls suggest the most likely outcome is that the PP and Vox could together earn the 176 seats needed to govern the country’s 350-seat parliament.
If so, the result would pave the way for a rightward shift in Spain following the Socialists’ push to advance transgender rights, access to abortion and menstrual leave.
If PP and Vox fall short of this threshold, the Socialists could seek to forge an alliance with Sumar, a grouping of 15 leftist parties, and rely on the votes of a handful of smaller regional parties to govern.
If the vote yields a fragmented result that makes it impossible for the parties to strike deals, it could mean fresh elections for Spain in 2024.
No matter the outcome, the lack of an outright majority for any one party would mean that Spanish politicians are facing weeks – if not months – of complex negotiations.
Summary
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Polls have just closed in the country’s snap general election.
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Snapshots of voting intention taken during the campaign suggest that there is no clear majority for any one party, though the PP and Vox could have enough for a majority, according to Reuters.
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Given that the results of the election are likely to come down to a dozen or so seats, it probably won’t be until around midnight local time (11pm UK) when we have a more concrete idea of what lies ahead for Spain.
Polls are now closed in Spain. As the results of the hard-fought snap general election begin trickling in, it’s worth highlighting what is at stake, as argued by the former UK prime minister, Gordon Brown, in this piece:
If the bloc of rightist parties ends up ahead of Sánchez, the near-50-year political taboo against neofascist parties in power will be broken. Vox will have moved from a gang of backstreet demagogues to the Spanish cabinet room, creating a political earthquake that will be felt right across the continent in the year of Spain’s presidency of the European Union,” he writes.
With voter surveys suggesting that there is no clear majority for any one party in Spain’s snap election, tonight’s poll has been waged on potential pacts as much as policy.
Speaking to the Associated Press, voter Alejandro Bleda, 45, alluded to the PP’s willingness to work with the far-right Vox party to explain how he voted.
“Given the polarisation in this country, it’s to vote either for 50 years of backwardness or for progress,” he said.
In contrast Carmen Acero, 62, said she was voting for the PP and accused Sánchez of being an “assassin” due to his willingness to rely on the small Basque regional party Bildu, which includes some former members of the now-defunct armed separatist group, ETA.
In recent days, the extent of what the far-right could do as a junior partner in a coalition with the PP has become a talking point.
Earlier this month I travelled to Castile and León, where the far-right has controlled a handful of ministries for the past 15 months as part of a PP-led government, to ask that very question.
Rights groups said the steady drip of rollbacks, rhetoric and reversals from the region’s institutions had derailed the push for progress while also leaving some feeling more vulnerable.
For the first time in a very long time, we felt that Pride was not about demanding more rights,” said Virginia Hernández Gómez of LGBTQ+ rights group Fundación Triángulo. “Instead, it was about demanding that the rights we have not be taken away.”
Spain’s snap election – framed by politicians as a battle between the left and right – has taken on a wider significance as a barometer of Europeans’ shifting attitude towards the far-right.
Polls suggest that the ultraconservative Vox party could emerge as kingmaker tonight, meaning its aggressive stance against feminists, LGBT+ rights and migrants could gain a foothold in Spain’s central government.
The vote comes weeks after Spain took over the rotating presidency of the European Union. A coalition that includes the far-right would be a fresh – and very symbolic – blow to the European left.
My colleague Jon Henley put together this look at how the far-right is increasingly shaping politics across Europe.
After every crisis, we have told ourselves that the populists and far-right are waning in Europe, and the fact is they have been rising more or less steadily, with a few interruptions, since the 1980s,” Catherine Fieschi, director of policy at Open Society Foundations Europe and an expert on populism, authoritarianism and the far-right told Jon. “They are really now a part of the landscape.”
Summary
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Polls have just closed across mainland Spain in the country’s snap general election. Polls on the Canary Islands will remain open for one more hour as the archipelago falls in a different time zone.
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Snapshots of voting intention taking during the campaign suggest that there is no clear majority for any one party, though the PP and Vox could have enough for a majority, according to Reuters.
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Given that the results of the election are likely to come down to a dozen or so seats, it probably won’t be until around midnight local time (11pm UK) when we have a more concrete idea of what lies ahead for Spain.
Here is more from Reuters on the voter surveys:
Spain’s conservative opposition People’s Party (PP) was seen ahead in Sunday’s snap election, but short of an outright parliamentary majority, which it could however achieve in a potential tie-up with far-right Vox, two voter surveys showed.
A survey by GAD3 for media group Mediaset, published shortly after mainland voting ended at 8pm and based on 10,000 voter intentions collated over the course of the election campaign through Saturday, showed the PP would win 150 seats, and Vox 31.
The leftist coalition, led by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialists, would get a combined 149 seats in the 350-seat lower chamber, GAD3 said.
Another survey, of 17,000 people by Sigma Dos pollster for the state broadcaster RTVE also showed no single party close to winning a parliamentary majority, and the combined right achieving it only at the top of the ranges provided.”
Polls closed
Polls in Spain’s snap general election have just closed in mainland Spain. Polls on the Canary Islands will remain open for one more hour due to the archipelago falling in a different time zone.
Snapshots of voting intention taking during the course of the campaign suggest that there is no clear majority for any one party, though the PP and Vox could have enough for a majority, according to Reuters.
Given that the results of the election will likely come down to a dozen or so seats, the these voter surveys should be viewed cautiously. It likely won’t be until around midnight local time (11pm UK) when we have a more concrete idea of what lies ahead for Spain.