The annual exercise of determining the winners and losers of the MLB trade deadline came with an ironic twist this year. The clear winner – Atlanta – mostly stood pat. The Braves’ acquisition of backup infielder Nicky Lopez from the Kansas City Royals merely reinforced the notion that the current favorites to win the World Series are the favorites for a reason.
I’m not convinced that everything else was akin to shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic, though the trade deadline certainly did not lack activity. Here are five things we learned:
1. The best time to make moves was the offseason
As I warned in last week’s column, the number of superstars destined to change addresses looked small, for the simple reason that there were few outstanding players on teams truly out of contention. Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer were granted their escape from Queens – more on the Mets in a bit – but rumors of Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Josh Hader, Nolan Arenado and others changing addresses feel like distant memories. This year, the superstars stayed put.
In fact, of the top 30 pitchers and top 30 hitters according to FanGraphs’ version of Wins Above Replacement, only one of each – pitcher Jordan Montgomery and third baseman Jeimer Candelario – were traded before the deadline.
Executives often say the best time to make improvements to the roster is in the offseason. This deadline demonstrated why.
2. The Mets are a colossal failure
The New York Mets, six games under .500 through Tuesday, blew it all up.
The trades of Verlander (to the Houston Astros) and Scherzer (to the Texas Rangers) were the white flag. The trades of Tommy Pham (to the Arizona Diamondbacks), Dominic Leone (to the Angels), Mark Canha (to the Milwaukee Brewers) and David Robertson (to the Miami Marlins) were throw-ins to the conditions of surrender.
When they reached the World Series in October 2015, the Mets began that season with baseball’s 21st-highest payroll. They won eight postseason games that fateful month alone. Since then, New York has ranked 14th, 12th, 12th, 10th, 8th, 3rd, 2nd and 1st in payroll – and won a single postseason game over seven years (soon to be eight).
Now, according to Scherzer, the Mets are gearing up to contend no sooner than 2025. That doesn’t exactly scream “sign here, Shohei!” now does it?
3. The Padres might as well go for it
There was no Juan Soto or Manny Machado available at this year’s deadline. For one longshot contender, that might be OK.
The San Diego Padres were two games under .500 at the deadline, but had a better run differential (plus-75 through Wednesday) than every team ahead of them in the National League wild-card standings; only the Braves and Dodgers are better in the NL.
We can debate whether run differential is an accurate indication of a team’s “true talent” or not. If you’re San Diego, why not bet that it is? They have approximately 260 million reasons to test the theory out.
In theory and on paper, the Padres don’t need another superstar, making them the only team on the wild card fringes well-positioned to get what it needed in a deadline-day shopping trip. Scott Barlow will need to pick up the slack for a bullpen that was 12-21 with a 3.80 ERA (through Tuesday) in spite of Hader, who has been nearly unhittable as the closer.
4. The White Sox … ceased … before cashing in their big chips
The Chicago White Sox somewhat inexplicably held on to their own top-30 pitcher (Dylan Cease) and position player (Luis Robert Jr.) while dealing seven other players off their major league roster.
On the one hand, it’s understandable. Neither Cease nor Robert can become a free agent until 2026 at the earliest. Optimistically, the White Sox can use the next three offseasons to rebuild something resembling a contending team by then. If nothing else, fans can hang on to a pair of player jerseys they bought at the beginning of the season.
On the other hand, where is the evidence to believe that a rebuild can work on the South Side?
After winning the World Series in 2006, the White Sox struggled for seven years to regain their relevance, then another seven years to build back into a playoff team. The result? Two series losses in October, followed by a quick tear-down. Remarkably, the same two executives (Kenny Williams and Rick Hahn) have overseen this entire arc, which doesn’t inspire faith that the next rebuild will be a quick one.
5. None of it might matter
The Angels did well to use a series of trades to cobble together an unusually deep 26-man roster that suddenly looks less like Ohtani and a mishmash of moderately useful players, and more like a legitimate wild-card contender.
Their three-game series against the Braves – who did all their heavy transactional lifting last winter – demonstrated the remarkable gap between the fringes of the wild card race and the best team in baseball. Atlanta outscored the Angels 18-10 in taking two of the three games at Truist Park. Will the eventual returns of Mike Trout, Logan O’Hoppe, Brandon Drury, Griffin Canning and others be enough to close that gap?
The Dodgers, similarly, have to ask if they have enough pitching to fend off San Francisco and Arizona in the NL West, let alone contend for a World Series. Their farm system was reputedly deep enough to make a run at any available talent at the deadline. Their pitching staff was hurting. But the sum total of their efforts netted Lance Lynn, Ryan Yarbrough and Joe Kelly – all “floor raisers,” to borrow Andrew Friedman’s verbiage.
Unless the Padres start playing to their talent level, Atlanta remains the best team in either league on paper. And it might not be close.