Ohioans unequivocally rejected a ballot measure that would have raised the threshold for amending their state constitution, a move by Republicans to try to make it harder to legalize abortion at the ballot box.
The outcome was a resounding victory for Democrats in a state where the left has suffered defeat after defeat in recent years — and a blow to Republicans hoping to block efforts to secure abortion rights. A proposal to codify abortion rights in the state constitution has already made the November ballot and needs only a simple majority to pass. Opponents of Issue 1 — the single item on the August special election ballot — were handily winning with most of the votes tallied.
The right framed Issue 1 as a way to bolster the state constitution against tampering by outside special interests, even as both sides spent millions of dollars in out-of-state cash. But the measure ultimately came down to the looming challenge to the GOP-backed law that virtually outlawed abortion in Ohio following the fall of Roe v. Wade last year.
The outcome means as much for onetime swing-state Ohio and its upcoming electoral battles (a presidential election and highly contested Senate race are both on the horizon in 2024) as it does for a post-Roe landscape that’s forced abortion rights activists to find avenues to circumvent Republican state legislatures.
Here are several takeaways from the (non-fraudulent) defeat of Ohio’s Issue 1:
It will embolden activists in other states
As HuffPost national reporter Alanna Vagianos noted: “The special election is an important reminder that whenever the public has been given the opportunity to directly vote on abortion rights, it has continually protected access — in both red and blue states.”
Last year, voters in deep-red Kansas opted overwhelmingly to keep reproductive rights in their state constitution, the first electoral test of the pro-choice movement following the U.S. Supreme Court’s reversal on abortion rights. Voters in Michigan, Kentucky and Montana did the same. Arizona appears to be the next electoral battleground where voters could be given the opportunity to weigh in directly on abortion, and Florida could soon join the list.
Polling continues to show a majority of Americans are dissatisfied with the Supreme Court’s June 2022 decision. A recent CNN survey found that 64% of adults disapprove of the court’s decision, a figure that CNN says hasn’t diminished since last year, suggesting the momentum for abortion rights that boosted Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections will continue to be a powerful force in 2024.
Jay LaPrete/Associated Press
Ohio proved that abortion rights are more popular than the Democratic Party overall. In some reliably blue and purple counties, a greater percentage of voters came out against Issue 1 than voted for Democrat Tim Ryan for Senate in 2022. In Wood County, a swing county south of Toledo, Ryan lost to Republican J.D. Vance, but the “no” vote got 56% of votes on Tuesday. Issue 1 was struck down even in the reddish suburbs of Ohio’s biggest cities.
It will upend a key GOP Senate primary — and hurt the party next year.
One of the biggest cheerleaders for Issue 1 was none other than Ohio’s chief elections officer — and 2024 Senate candidate — Frank LaRose, the official charged with overseeing elections across Ohio’s 88 counties.
In the days leading up to the special election, LaRose barnstormed the state — not for his campaign to defeat Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown but to support the ballot measure, which he admitted was “100%” about keeping abortion out of the state’s constitution. The pro-Issue 1 side, which sought a 60% vote to change the state constitution, argued that it takes much more than a simple majority to amend the U.S. Constitution.
“I don’t really give a darn whether it helps me or hurts me,” LaRose told NBC news before the election. “I’m confident we’ll win this. But even if we don’t, I think it’s better to fight and lose than to not fight at all when it’s a worthwhile cause.”
It doesn’t seem likely to help LaRose. His primary rivals can frame Issue 1 as a personal loss for a top elected Republican, who couldn’t help muster it over the finish line in an increasingly red state that voted for Donald Trump twice. And if LaRose does make it all the way to 2024 — and the abortion rights measure wins in November with a majority of votes — then it’s more ammo for Brown, the state’s lone statewide elected Democrat and a top GOP target, to argue that LaRose is out of touch with the state’s electorate.
An election that was supposed to be about funding special interests was funded by …
Millions of dollars flooded Ohio, spending both for and against the ballot measure.
By Tuesday, both sides had spent almost $32 million on their TV ad wars, according to AdImpact’s analysis, which took into account both the spending on the August election and the upcoming abortion question on the November ballot. Spending is roughly neck-and-neck overall among Democrats and Republicans for both elections, the group found. But Democrats outspent Republicans on advertising to defeat Issue 1, while Republicans are currently outspending Democrats on the election that’s still three months away.
The right’s messaging ultimately missed the mark, focusing on “anti-woke” culture war messaging that doesn’t seem to be resonating with voters. An ad from Protect Ohio Women, a pro-Issue 1 group, attempted to conflate it with the right’s war on “wokeness” and transgender Americans.
A majority of the money in the race flowed from outside Ohio.
The “yes” faction raised about $20 million, with a lift from Republican billionaire Dick Uihlien of Illinois and Susan B. Anthony List, a major anti-abortion group, according to the most recent disclosures made to the Ohio secretary of state. The “no” side raised almost $15 million with major donors that included liberal mega-donor Karla Jurvetson and the California-based Tides Foundation — proof the stakes in this election went beyond the Buckeye State.