In my eyes, the SEC East is already locked up.
Pencil in Georgia for the SEC Championship game.
However, the SEC West is far from a foregone conclusion. Alabama is the favorite in the betting markets, but the Crimson Tide is weaker than ever and that opens up value on other teams.
Alabama brings in the nation’s top recruiting class, but the Tide has almost zero experience on the roster, including an average quarterback room. Nick Saban also lost both his coordinators and made two underwhelming hires to replace them.
So, with that in mind, I have two teams I’m betting on to win the SEC West:
Brian Kelly already dethroned Nick Saban in the division last season, upsetting the Tide as two-touchdown home underdogs late in the season and sneaking into the SEC Championship Game.
The Tigers should be better in Kelly’s second season, and they bring back as much talent as any team in the nation. The Tigers return 15 starters, including four offensive linemen, five running backs and three of last season’s top four tacklers.
The Tigers return Jayden Daniels to quarterback the offense and Harold Perkins to quarterback the defense, and those two have superstar-level ceilings.
While the Tigers were a tad lucky last season, I can only expect them to improve with so much returning production. Plus, the schedule might be easier than last season.
LSU projects as a favorite in 11 games and draws Missouri and Florida from the East.
Obviously, the game at Alabama in Week 10 will decide if this ticket cashes, but I’m bullish on the Tigers and bearish on the Tide, so I’m willing to take that risk at the 2/1 price.
At the minimum, that matchup could serve as a hedge spot.
Mississippi (25/1, BetMGM)
Lane Kiffin is an offensive mastermind, and this offense has a chance to be really special.
The quarterback room is loaded with talent. Even if Jaxson Dart doesn’t take the next step as starting quarterback, you can feel good about falling back on either Oklahoma State transfer Spencer Sanders or LSU transfer Walker Howard.
The offensive line returns 87 percent of snaps from last season and includes more than 130 career FBS starts. This is one of the top lines in college football.
The line will be blocking for running back Quinshon Judkins, one of college football’s most elusive running backs. He generated 76 missed tackles and 27 runs of 15 yards or more.
In total, nine starters return for the Rebels, and they brought in several impact transfers, including three receivers to make up for losing their top two pass catchers from last season.
Meanwhile, the Rebels stole defensive coordinator Pete Golding from Alabama, representing one of the best coordinator hires in the country.
Betting on College Football?
While Ole Miss focused on preventing explosive plays last season while getting gutted in the middle of the field, it will be more aggressive this year and play more 3-4 scheme. I expect a huge boost from this unit after it was one of the SEC’s worst in 2022.
The schedule is brutal, but there’s too much value at 25/1 when considering Kiffin’s offense and Golding’s defense.
The Rebels will need to steal a road game from Alabama or Georgia to win the SEC West, but this team is talented enough. Kiffin is 12-8 against the spread as a road underdog in his career.