Anecdotally, it seems like “everyone knows someone who’s sick with COVID-19 right now,” according to CNN. Cases have been rising for the entire month of August, with a 19% increase in hospitalizations in the past week, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data updated Thursday. Hospitalizations are still about 35% of what they were in last winter’s surge, but now that the CDC stopped tracking cases in May and the population has stopped testing as frequently, it’s become more difficult to know the full extent of new waves.
Experts say the CDC data is likely an underestimate. Using wastewater to determine how much the virus is circulating, some estimate 621,837 new cases are being reported each day, about 50% the rate of last winter. All variants in circulation right now are mutations of the Omicron strain of the virus, with top variants EG.5 (nicknamed “Eris”) and FL.1.5.1 (nicknamed “Fornax”) together responsible for 36% of cases.
The situation has become more unpredictable following the emergence of variants like BA.2.86, also known as “Pirola,” which scientists worry could be a cause for concern if it becomes widespread. In response to this summer’s wave, especially Pirola, the U.K. accelerated the rollout of its new vaccines. In the U.S. the new batch of vaccines, which will work against the variants currently circulating, will be available in mid-September. Meanwhile, some places are bringing mask mandates back, NPR reported.
COVID isn’t the only virus on the radar as we approach colder months. Other viruses like the flu and respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, for which a new vaccine was recently approved for people 60 and up, also peak in winter months. A safe strategy to prevent infection from all of these viruses is to get vaccinated in September or October. As always, following standard COVID protocols, including masking, can also reduce the spread of disease.