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Pantera Sets $148,000 BTC Price Target Post-Halving
According to Pantera Capital, Bitcoin has been negative on a year-over-year basis for 15 straight months (starting Feb. 8, 2022) as of June 12. Prior to this, the longest period had been less than a year (Nov. 14, 2014, to Oct. 31, 2015).
It’s worth mentioning that BTC is up by over 20% year-over-year as of Wednesday, even after last week’s unprecedented fall from the near-$30,000 region.
Pantera highlighted in its Aug. 22 “Blockchain Letter” that Bitcoin’s price performance relies heavily on its halving cycles. With the next due within the next 12 months, the crypto firm is predicting that historical trends will continue.
Pantera observes that BTC typically has a cycle bottom and top that are generally equal lengths of time from each halving, an event where block rewards for mining fresh blocks are cut in half. With the forthcoming halving, miners’ rewards earned per block of transactions will plunge from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, while the corresponding dip in emission and its impact on supply and demand dynamics is getting analysts excited.
“Bitcoin has historically bottomed 477 days prior to the halving, climbed leading into it, and then exploded to the upside afterward,” Pantera said.
“The post-halving rallies have averaged 480 days — from the halving to the peak of that next bull cycle.”
If the historical pattern repeats itself, Bitcoin could see a jump to $35k before the block subsidy halving in April 2024 and a staggering rally to almost $150k after the event, the firm, helmed by Dan Morehead, opined. While the Efficient Markets Theory (EMF) suggests that the effect of the halving event has already been reflected in pricing, Pantera’s analysis suggests the potential for a price spike if demand remains constant amid slashed supply.
“The next halving is expected to occur on April 20, 2024. Since most bitcoins are now in circulation, each halving will be almost exactly half as big a reduction in new supply. If history were to repeat itself, the next halving would see bitcoin rising to $35k before the halving and $148k after.”
Roughly 480 days from an April 2024 halving puts Bitcoin on course to hit its next potential historic high of $148,000 by July 2025.
What’s In The Cards For Bitcoin?
Besides the Bitcoin halving being a positive catalyst for the Bitcoin price, the recent XRP ruling and a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) application by BlackRock creates a “strong setup for the next bull market for digital assets,” per Pantera Capital.
Pantera is far from alone in predicting six-figure BTC price highs in the coming months and beyond.
British multinational bank Standard Chartered said in July that if miners begin to horde their coins going into next year, the supply crunch could drive Bitcoin’s price to $120,000 by 2025.
One of the latest calls for six-figure BTC comes from “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” author Robert Kiyosaki, who earlier this month doubled down on his $100,000 price prediction.
Others, however, think the $100k target is achievable — just not before the 2024 halving.