New Delhi: Bharatiya Janata Party’s strike rate in direct contests against Congress fell from 92 percent in 2019 Lok Sabha elections to 71 percent in the 2024 polls.
This drastic decline and the corresponding rise in Congress’s strike rate — three times higher than 2019 polls — is one of the key reasons for BJP’s setback this time.
Of the 216 seats, where the two parties were in direct contest, BJP won 154, and Congress won 62. Direct fight accounts for the seats, where both parties either occupied 1st or 2nd position.
While the strike rate has improved for Congress, the number of seats, where there was a direct contest, also rose. In 2019, the two parties were directly pitted against each other in 192 seats.
This time, BJP won 240 seats in total, and Congress upped its tally to 99.
The two parties engaged in direct contests across 28 states and Union Territories. However, they were against each other on more than five seats in only 11 states/UTs.
One of the reasons for the increased number of such seats is that Telangana, for the first time, saw a direct contest between the BJP and Congress on 14 of the state’s 17 seats.
Once the ruling party in the state, Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) was reduced to the third position. While BJP’s strike rate here was 57 percent (eight out of 14), Congress’s was 43 percent (six out of 14).
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Where Congress made a comeback
In Maharashtra and Haryana, however, Congress outperformed BJP in direct contests.
Congress sprung a surprise in Maharashtra, emerging as the single largest party in the state with 13 seats. It was in direct contest with the BJP in 15 seats in the state and won 11 of them, securing a strikerate of 73 percent. BJP, on the other hand, managed only four wins, at the cost of Congress.
In Nandurbar, incumbent MP and daughter of state minister Vijaykumar Gavit, Heena Gavit, lost to Congress’s Gowaal Kagada Padavi by 1.6 lakh votes. Similarly, Navneet Rana, Amravati’s sitting MP, lost her seat to Congress’s Balwant Wankhade by 20,000 votes.
In Haryana, too, Congress won five (55 percent) out of nine seats in direct contest. BJP won four against Congress, and one against AAP — Kurukshetra.
In fact, BJP’s Ashok Tanwar, who had defected from AAP earlier this year, lost to senior Congress leader Kumari Selja by over 2.6 lakh votes. Congress’s Deepender Hooda, regained the Rohtak seat from BJP’s incumbent MP, Arvind Kumar Sharma.
In Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, BJP faced major losses. Having won only one seat — Rae Bareli — in the two states the last time, Congress won a third of all direct contests on 38 seats there. Congress’s 13 direct contest wins are a major boost for the party, which was decimated both 2014 and 2019 in these states.
In UP, while Rahul Gandhi bettered his mother’s 2019 performance from the family bastion, Rae Bareli, the party also reclaimed the Amethi seat with Kishori Lal Sharma, registering a win over Union minister Smriti Irani by 1.6 lakh votes.
Meanwhile, in Rajasthan, Rahul Kaswan, who was denied a ticket by BJP from Churu as a sitting MP, won the seat yet again on a Congress ticket. He defeated BJP’s Devendra Jhajharia by 72,000 votes.
In Karnataka, too, of the 25 seats where the two national parties were engaged in a direct fight, Congress won eight, striking at the rate of 32 percent. BJP won 17.
Congress’s Sagar Eshwar Khandre registered a win over Union minister and sitting MP from Bidar, Bhagwanth Khuba, by 1.2 lakh votes. The party also reclaimed president Mallikarjun Kharge’s bastion from BJP — Gulbarga.
In Jharkhand and Assam, BJP and Congress were engaged in a direct contest on seven and nine seats, respectively. In Assam, BJP’s strike rate in direct contests was 78 percent with seven wins, and in Jharkhand, it was 71 percent with five wins.
Another Union minister and incumbent MP, who faced a defeat at the hand of Congress, was Arjun Munda in Jharkhand’s Khunti. The former chief minister lost his seat by a margin of 1.5 lakhs to Congress’s Kali Charan Munda. Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi also registered a victory by over 1.5 lakh votes from Jorhat in Assam.
BJP still dominant in MP, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh
However, BJP maintained a very dominant position in three states in the Hindi heartland.
In Madhya Pradesh, except Indore and Khargone, where there were no Congress candidates in the fray, the two parties were engaged in a direct fight on the remaining 27 seats. BJP’s strike rate was 100 percent as it swept the state for the first time.
In Vidisha, former chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan defeated Congress’s Pratapbhanu Sharma by a whopping margin of 8.2 lakh votes. Union minister Jyotiraditya Scindia defeated the Congress candidate by a margin of 5.4 lakh votes.
Among major states, barring Madhya Pradesh, BJP had a strike rate of over 90 percent only in Gujarat and Chhattisgarh. While BJP won 25 of the 26 seats in Gujarat, Congress for the first time since 2014, won a seat in the state — Banaskantha.
In Chattisgarh, Congress’s sole seat, out of 11, came from Korba. On 35 of the 37 seats in the two states, the national parties were engaged in a direct fight.
(Edited by Mannat Chugh)
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