The Dodgers were projected to win 97 games prior to this season by Baseball Prospectus. In hindsight, their streak of 17 wins in 19 games since the All-Star break looks like a course correction. The Dodgers are on pace for 100 wins, a tad better than expectations.
There’s often great agreement between statistical models and reality. In the Dodgers’ case, PECOTA couldn’t foresee something important: the unexpected contributions of six mid-season acquisitions, many of whose statistical results were downright bad before they became Dodgers.
Entering Monday’s off-day, the Dodgers held a comfortable 12-game lead in the National League West. They were a third-place team in their own division as late as June 28, and they didn’t assume first place for good until July 8. It’s difficult to imagine such a transformation without help from Ryan Brasier, Amed Rosario, Kiké Hernandez, Joe Kelly, Lance Lynn and Ryan Yarbrough.
Six strokes of luck, or the Midas touch at work?
“The guys we acquired … it’s looking at their true talent level,” General Manager Brandon Gomes said, “like the Kikés and Lance Lynns and Joe Kellys, their numbers statistically were not indicative of how talented they are. It’s sifting through that, getting coaches’ perspectives, other players’ perspectives, how they would fit into different roles, the clubhouse culture and doing what we’re looking to accomplish, which is winning the World Series every year.”
“You’re making an educated bet,” Gomes continued. “You don’t really know how it will play out. It’s a lot easier to bet on somebody when you’re able to take the human factor in. We’re more willing to pour resources into a player who has a really good reputation.”
Two years ago, the Atlanta Braves rode the hot hands of Jorge Soler, Eddie Rosario, Joc Pederson and Adam Duvall – among other midseason acquisitions – all the way to a championship on the heels of an 88-win season. Of those four players, only Rosario had not played on a team that won the World Series prior to the trade.
If the Dodgers can capture the same magic with their newcomers – four of whom have World Series experience – the turning point(s) of their season will be told in five transactions.
1. June 20: Selected Brasier’s contract from Triple-A Oklahoma City.
Brasier signed a minor league contract on June 4, two weeks after he was officially released by the Boston Red Sox. The veteran right-hander had a 7.29 ERA in 20 games with Boston and has a 1.11 ERA in 24 major league games with the Dodgers.
“When he became available … we had our pitching group take a look at him, and identify that if we were able to implement a cutter it would help versus left-handed hitters,” Gomes said. “He’d always been very good against right-handers. Then (he made) some minor mechanical adjustments.
“To Ryan’s credit, this is a guy who had pitched in the World Series, had a very good career, and he said ‘I’ll go to Arizona and work, make these adjustments.’ It speaks to his will to win, his compete.”
2. July 25: Traded pitchers Nick Robertson and Justin Hagenman to the Boston Red Sox for Hernandez.
A utility player with the Dodgers from 2021-23, Hernandez had a .599 OPS in 86 games prior to the trade. He has a .747 OPS in 22 games since, starting against left-handed pitchers and sitting against right-handers.
“Kiké is fully capable against right-handed pitchers as well,” Gomes said. “His swing had gotten out of whack. Our hitting coaches were confident there were things they could address in his swing that would get him back to performing at a high level. It’s a little knowing he could be elite in that role, hit right-handed pitchers, and his instincts and defense are as good as anyone’s in the game.”
3. July 26: traded Noah Syndergaard to the Cleveland Guardians for Rosario.
Syndergaard had a 7.16 ERA in 12 starts with the Dodgers. Rosario had a .675 on-base plus slugging percentage in 94 games with Cleveland, and a .708 OPS through his first 19 games as a Dodger.
“He’d historically been fantastic vs. left-handers,” Gomes said. “His defensive metrics at shortstop were not indicative of how talented he is. He was all-in about diving in with our coaches about working at second base.”
4. July 28: Traded outfielder Trayce Thompson, and minor league pitchers Jordan Leasure and Nick Nastrini, to the Chicago White Sox for Lynn and Kelly.
Kelly was 1-5 with a 4.97 ERA in 31 games before the trade, and he had not allowed a run in four appearances since before right forearm inflammation sent him to the injured list. He has yet to throw off a mound since the injury, but the Dodgers are taking a conservative approach with an eye toward the postseason.
“We’ve played really, really good defense over the last few months, which is helpful for any pitcher coming from a different level of defense than what we have,” Gomes said. “We’re very fortunate in that regard. Joe’s stuff is the best of his career. He’d agree with that. Everything says he should be performing, especially with reliever small-sample stuff, and we know Joe the person. We’ll trust him in any situation. Reliever ERA is so hard to navigate.”
Lynn was 6-9 with a 6.47 ERA in 21 starts with the White Sox. As a Dodger, he’s 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in four starts.
“Lance is more of an anomaly,” Gomes said. “The ability to post, compete, the makeup – he’s made an impact with our younger pitchers. We’ve made some tweaks. He’s working with Mark (Prior) and Connor (McGuiness). He’s been everything we could’ve hoped – the ultimate competitor. Going out and attacking the game plan he’s putting together with Will (Smith), (Austin) Barnes, Danny (Lehmann). It’s a testament to him going out and executing and working well with teammates.”
5. Aug. 1: Traded minor league infielders Derlin Figueroa and Devin Mann to Kansas City for pitcher Ryan Yarbrough.
Yarbrough was 4-5 with a 4.24 ERA in a swingman role with the Royals. He’s 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA in four games, all relief appearances, since joining the Dodgers.
Gomes was quick to note Yarbrough’s numbers in Kansas City after he returned from a grisly injury, a line drive that struck him in the face during a May 7 game against the Oakland A’s: 5-1 with a 1.95 ERA and one save in eight games (four starts).
“It was like, ‘look this guy put up really good numbers and his ability to flood the zone with multiple pitches’ – we could then work later on execution, stability with our game planning,” Gomes said. “The compete on this guy is through the roof. Everybody in Tampa and Kansas City was saying, ‘it’s just the ultimate competitor.’ He wants to win and he puts a huge emphasis on that, wants to be the best he can be.”