The latest poll in California’s hotly contested race for U.S. Senate shows the Republican former baseball star Steve Garvey rocketing into second place behind frontrunner Adam Schiff, who has solidified his lead while his fellow Democratic representatives Katie Porter and Barbara Lee struggle to catch up.
While it may sound odd, that could be good for Democrats. California is a dark blue state, where the Cook Political Report sees California’s Senate race as a “solid” Democratic win, meaning it’s “not considered competitive” and “not likely to become closely contested” by a Republican in November.
But in California’s primary system, the top two vote-getters on March 5 will move on to the general election, regardless of party. So an intra-party battle for the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s senate seat would siphon off millions of campaign contributions Democrats could better spend in battleground districts as they try to hold the Senate in November while attempting to retake the House of Representatives. Both chambers are almost evenly divided between the parties.
“This dynamic — where multiple Democrats raise big money to fight against each other for a prize that seems safely in the party’s hand — happens over and over again in California,” said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at UC-San Diego. “It’s inefficient for the party collectively, but the party has no power to stop a fundraising pattern that makes perfect sense for each ambitious candidate individually.”
In the Senate race, the three leading Democratic members of Congress have amassed some $60 million toward the open seat currently occupied by Sen. Laphonza Butler, who was appointed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom and who has declined to run for a full term.
The Democrat-vs.-Democrat dynamic has also led to interesting alliances this winter. With Republicans considered not to be a serious threat to take the seat in November, and with Garvey far outraised by his Democratic rivals, Schiff and Porter have been spending money to promote Republicans to influence their own chances for the seat.
Schiff has run ads blasting Garvey as “too conservative for California” — which Porter has complained is a backhanded way to boost the Republican among GOP voters at her expense by consolidating their support for him and shutting her out in the top-two primary.
But Porter has answered in kind, with ads noting little-known Republican Eric Early “stands with” former President Donald Trump, whom Tuesday’s Emerson poll found was backed by 72% of GOP voters but who is unpopular among California voters as a whole.
While Schiff’s ads note Garvey voted twice for Trump, the former slugger has declined to say whether he’d vote for him November or accept his endorsement. Porter’s ads are seen as a play to peel Republican votes away from Garvey.
Tuesday’s poll by Emerson College Polling, sponsored by Nexstar Media, found Schiff maintaining his lead with 28% of registered voters, followed by Garvey at 22%.
The poll put Porter at 16% and Lee at 9%. Republicans Early and James Bradley and Democrat Christina Pascucci drew 2% each, with 17% still undecided.
The poll landed ahead of Tuesday’s third and final debate among the four front-running candidates and provides a window into how the race is shaping up now that ballots are out. Voters are paying attention and campaigns are spending big on ads to make the case to a dwindling share of undecideds.
The poll was conducted Feb. 16-18 among 1,000 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Emerson College previously polled on the race in November 2023 and in January. The latest results show Schiff and Porter each have climbed three percentage points since January, Garvey four points and Lee one point.
“Schiff’s support is highest among voters in their 60s, at 45%, and those over 70, with 39%, whereas Porter’s strength is among young voters, where she holds 23%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Notably, this group has the highest share of undecided voters at 28%. Garvey’s strength is also with older voters, with 33% support among voters over 70.”
The poll also found that independent voters are virtually split between Garvey at 23% and Schiff at 22%. They make up the Golden State’s third-largest bloc of voters — Democrats account for 47% of voter registration, Republicans 24% and no party preference voters 22%.
Democrats looking at the California race from afar are discussing the benefit of how a Democrat vs. Garvey runoff would allow them to redirect resources to much more competitive races in other parts of the country.
Doug Linney, a political consultant and founder of Activate America, an Oakland group that works to elect Democrats and strategizes efforts to hold or retake control of Congress, said the conversation came up at a recent webinar.
“I don’t know that there’s anything we can do about it,” said Linney, whose group doesn’t endorse one Democrat over another. “But I would agree the money as much as possible should go to those close races, basically partisan races.”
Linney added that while he can’t say for sure “if we’re being hurt by all the money going into that” Senate race, “we’re always short of what we need to have the impact in the fall elections.”
While strategists such as Linney try to appeal to their donors to treat them like mutual fund managers — invest your money with the experts and let them pick the stocks — the strategists can’t stop donors from giving generously to candidates of the same party in races the party already is expected to win.
“Donors do what donors do,” Linney said. “A lot of people are also interested in gaining access. The way to do that is not by donating to us but by donating to the candidate. They want to have the glow of supporting a candidate who’s in the spotlight or who can win. That’s a different kind of donor who wants to invest in those races than those most crucial to the outcome in the fall.”