For the JMM, which is fighting this election as part of the larger INDIA bloc this time, the seat is linked to the power and prestige of the powerful Soren family — which includes not just Hemant but also his father, party chief, and former Jharkhand CM Shibu Soren.
With the former CM now in jail and the party patriarch lying low in these polls due to health reasons, the party is relying on a star campaigner — Hemant Soren’s wife Kalpana, a firebrand orator whose political acumen has taken many by surprise. A political greenhorn, Kalpana has been carrying JMM’s election campaign on her shoulders, addressing rally after rally with the skill of a seasoned politician.
According to Stephen Marandi, a veteran JMM leader and the party’s election strategist at Santhal Pargana — the administrative division under which Rajmahal falls — tribals in the state see Hemant Soren’s arrest as a BJP ploy.
Significantly, Barhait, the seat the former CM represents, comes under the Lok Sabha constituency of Rajmahal.
“The tribal community is hurt by the arrest of Hemant Soren,” said Marandi, insisting that the party’s equation with the people is strong and that it will retain the seat.
The BJP, meanwhile, hopes to ride on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity. Anant Kumar Ojha, the BJP MLA from Rajmahal assembly seat, also accused the JMM-Congress of “doing politics of appeasement for votes”, adding that “this election, we are conveying Modi ji‘s message of ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vishwas, Sabka Vishwas’ to the public”.
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Why Rajmahal is important
Rajmahal constituency includes three districts of Santhal Pargana — Sahibganj, Godda and Dumka. The region shares its borders with West Bengal and Bihar. The tribal-majority constituency has a significant number of Christian and Muslim votes, along with a substantial presence of the Other Backward Classes (OBCs).
There are six assembly seats under Rajmahal Lok Sabha Constituency — Rajmahal, Borio, Barhait, Litipara, Pakur, and Maheshpur.
The BJP holds one, Rajmahal. Of the others, the JMM currently has four — the reserved tribal seats of Borio, Barhait, Litipara, and Maheshpur.
Congress leader Alam, meanwhile, represents Pakur.
Until 2004, the Congress and the JMM were both equally strong in the parliamentary constituency, with the seat, then in undivided Bihar, going alternately to them from 1957 until 1998. The only exception to this trend was in 1977 when Anthony Murmu from Bharatiya Lok Dal won.
The BJP won the seat for the first time in 1998, with its candidate Som Marandi beating Congress’s Thomas Hansdak by a margin of just nine votes. His victory was brief, however, with Hansdak returning the very next year.
Over the past two decades, the JMM has strengthened its hold here while the presence of the Congress shrunk. Significantly, except for the years between 2009 and 2014 (when it went to the BJP), the Rajmahal seat has remained largely with the party.
This shows in its voting trends too, with the JMM’s vote share going from 39.88 percent in 2014 to 48.47 percent in 2019.
The BJP hopes to reverse its fortunes with this election and is hedging its bets on Tala Marandi, who returned to the party this year after a political stint in the All Jharkhand Students’ Union.
Marandi was appointed head of the state unit of the BJP in 2016 when Raghubar Das was heading the state government. However, his stint was brief, and a string of controversies, including a sexual abuse allegation against his son, forced him to resign on moral grounds.
Like the JMM, the BJP, too, sees Rajmahal as something of a status symbol — not only does Hemant Soren’s stronghold of Barhait come under it but the Sorens, especially patriarch Shibu Soren, also continue to wield significant influence over it.
This iron grip of the Sorens did not loosen even in 2014 when the Modi wave that swept the country won the BJP-led NDA alliance 12 of the state’s 14 Lok Sabha seats.
According to Amar Kumar Bauri, Chandankiyari MLA and BJP’s legislative party leader in the Jharkhand assembly, the party is doing everything in its power to wrest Rajmahal from the JMM.
“After this, we will oust JMM from power in the assembly elections (due later this year) as well,” he said.
Given the fierce battle for the seat, the JMM appears to have changed its election strategy this time, with its cadre continually engaging with voters in the constituency’s remote and hilly areas. It is also placing its hopes on Kalpana Soren’s fierce election campaign
“The BJP is running out of steam due to the mobilisation of JMM cadres and tribals. Kalpana Soren’s campaign has left the party exhausted,” Maheshpur MLA Stephen Marandi told ThePrint.
Money-laundering allegations, internal rebellion
For the JMM, this election is no bed of roses, with arrests of Hemant Soren, and more recently, Congress leader and minister Alamgir Alam, queering its pitch.
Besides being a prominent Muslim face, Alam is known to be an election strategist of the Jharkhand Congress.
While the arrests have provided ample ammunition to the BJP, the ruling alliance has defended both leaders, instead accusing the BJP of being nervous over the ongoing elections.
But it’s not only the two arrests that the JMM has to contend with. It’s also facing a mutiny — after being denied a ticket to contest the polls, the party’s five-term Borio MLA Lobin Hembrom has decided to contest as an Independent.
The rebellion came months after party chief Shibu Soren’s elder daughter-in-law Sita Soren, an MLA from Jharkhand’s tribal Jama seat, joined the BJP.
On 17 May, JMM chief Shibu Soren suspended both Hembrom and Sita, now a BJP candidate from Dumka, for six years.
The JMM is now trying to wean away Hembrom’s support base in the party and isolate him. On his part, the Borio MLA claims that he had conveyed to the party that the voters in Rajmahal were unhappy with sitting MP Vijay Hansdak.
“I had told the party that the public is not happy with the present MP Vijay Kumar Hansdak, that he had not done any development work,” he told ThePrint. “But the party did not listen. Now, I’m getting support from the public and workers everywhere.”
Vijay Kumar Hansdak, however, denies the allegations claiming that development is a major issue for the party. JMM sources also claim the party is invincible in the tribal areas of Santhal Pargana.
According to Hemlal Murmu, Hembrom will not affect the party or its campaign. A former MP from Rajmahal and four-time MLA from Barhait, Murmu left the JMM for the BJP in 2014 and was fielded as the party candidate that year as well as in 2019.
He lost both elections to Hansdak. Today, he’s handling his once rival’s election campaign in Borio, having returned to the JMM last year.
“No JMM worker is with him,” he adds.
However, senior political analyst Anuj Kumar is more cautious in his reading of the situation. He believes that while the combination of tribal and Muslim votes in the constituency has been in favour of the JMM in the last few years, it remains to be seen if Hembrom can cause any major damage outside Borio.
On the other hand, the BJP is confident of securing votes in Modi’s name, he said.
“The BJP cadres have been unable to steer the constituency’s vote-bank equations in their favour at the ground level,” he said.
JMM’s trump card — Kalpana Soren
Hemant Soren’s arrest last December was expected to shake up the party and upset its campaign this election. That changed when his wife Kalpana Soren stepped up to the plate.
Compelled to enter politics after Soren’s arrest, Kalpana, previously a homemaker, has emerged as its rising star. She has held eight election meetings in Rajmahal in the last four days, addressing the crowd in Hindi, Bengali, and Santhali.
आज देर शाम बरहेट स्थित पतना में झामुमो परिवार के कर्मठ कार्यकर्ताओं एवं माताओं-बहनों से मुलाकात हुई।
अपने दादा, अपने बेटे, अपने भाई हेमन्त जी की कमी सभी को खल रही है। मगर उसके बावजूद INDIA गठबंधन की जीत के लिए सभी मेहनत कर रहे हैं।
उन्हें पता है कि उनके हेमन्त जी की जेल की चाबी… pic.twitter.com/M8ZrBX74YO— Hemant Soren (@HemantSorenJMM) May 25, 2024
At these campaigns, she has not only attacked the Modi government for “framing” her husband but also talked about how the Centre is withholding funds due to the state.
She is also careful to name tribal martyrs and list the contributions of her husband, Hemant, and her father-in-law Shibu Soren, a towering figure in the movement for Jharkhand’s statehood.
According to political analysts, her presence appears to have infused new vigour into the party. Kalpana herself believes that the Modi wave that had gripped the country during the last two elections has ebbed. She also believes that her father-in-law’s print on Rajmahal is indelible.
All this is making the BJP nervous, she said.
“Rajmahal has been the land of brave tribal martyrs like Sido Murmu and Kanhu Murmu (of the Santhal rebellion) and has always respected Guruji (as Shibu Soren is often referred to). Our ancestors have taught us to fight and we’ll definitely fight dictatorial forces. This time, too, the BJP will lose the election here,” she said.
(Edited by Uttara Ramaswamy)
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