In the Philippines, are economic woes spilling into politics as President Marcos Jnr and Duterte hurl insults at each other?

The former president further warned Marcos Jnr, 66, that should he and his cousin, House Speaker Martin Romualdez, continue to try to change the 1987 Constitution through a “People’s Initiative” – which entails getting 12 per cent of the entire voting population, spread out to at least three per cent per voting district, to sign a petition backing the proposed changes – this could “divide the nation” and might lead him to follow in his father’s fate “of being ousted by the people”.

A People’s Initiative is one of the constitutional modes of amending the Constitution but the current one, according to Vice-President Sara Duterte, has been marred with allegations of cash being exchanged for “yes” votes.

On Monday, shortly before departing for a state visit to Vietnam, Marcos Jnr batted away reporters’ questions about whether he was using illegal substances, saying with a laugh, “I won’t even dignify the question.”

However, he responded to Duterte’s accusation by saying the former president’s attacks were the result of an opioid fentanyl addiction.

“I think it’s the fentanyl. Fentanyl is the strongest painkiller that you can buy. It is highly addictive and it has very serious side effects, and PRRD (Duterte’s initials as president) has been taking the drug for a very long time now. I hope his doctors take better care of them [sic], this problem should not be ignored.”

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Duterte has publicly admitted to using fentanyl for pain relief following a motorcycle accident in 2016.

Amid Duterte and Marcos Jnr’s war of words, their supporters gathered at opposing rallies on Sunday in an apparent show of force.

Marcos Jnr, along with 400,000 supporters including local government executives, members of his cabinet and government employees, filled the Quirino Grandstand in Manila.

The presidential palace released a statement denying that the rally was intended to shore up support for the constitutional charter change, which critics have warned is a way for Marcos Jnr to extend his term of office beyond the single six-year term currently allowed for presidents, or to allow his cousin to become prime minister by adopting a parliamentary form of government.

Rather, Marcos Jnr emphasised in his speech that the event was dedicated to the launch of his Bagong Pilipinas (New Philippines) programme to fight the “negativism” and “toxic politics” enveloping the government.

Simultaneously in Davao City’s San Pedro Square, the Duterte family called on tens of thousands of their supporters – some of whom flew in from across the country – to stage a “prayer rally” to support the embattled former president, who is currently under investigation by the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court in The Hague for his bloody war on drugs, which human right groups estimate to have caused the deaths of over 12,000.

The rally marked the first time that Duterte, as well as his two sons, attacked Marcos Jnr publicly. Sebastian, Duterte’s younger son and the mayor of Davao City, said, “Mr President, if you do not have love and aspirations for your country, resign.”

He went on to accuse Marcos Jnr of being “lazy” for not acting against rising criminality, lacking compassion for the poor and colluding with the communist New People’s Army to stay in power.

Duterte’s elder son Paolo blasted the president’s cousin, House Speaker Romualdez, for stripping two billion pesos (US$35.4 million) from Davao City’s infrastructure budget, leaving them with “a measly 500 million pesos”.

“I will not kneel before you … to all congressmen ganging up on us, do not give me that kind of BS because I will not starve to death if you take my budget away. It’s the Davaoenos who voted for [Marcos] who will suffer,” he said.

He also accused Marcos Jnr of ingratitude and reminded him it was his father who had given their dead dictator-father a hero’s burial.

On Sunday, both sides were on the brink of breaking the “unity” pact that delivered both Marcos Jnr and his vice-presidential mate Sara Duterte their landslide victory in the 2022 election.

However, Sara, 45, played the peacemaker by attending both events, first joining Marcos Jnr at his Manila rally then flying to Davao City to join her family’s.

She made it clear that while she supported the president’s Bagong Pilipinas socio-economic agenda “to improve Filipino lives”, she was taking a stand against the People’s Initiative where she said signatures were being bought with cash.

In Vietnam, Marcos Jnr told reporters his relation to Sara remained unchanged, and she would stay on as education secretary.

Absent from the Manila rally but present at the Davao City rally was Marcos Jnr’s eldest sister, Senator Imee Marcos, who confirmed in a recent statement that her relationship with her cousin Martin was strained because of the way he had been treating the Dutertes.

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A veteran financial market observer, who asked not be named due to the sensitivity of the issue, told This Week in Asia: “The rift is a warning sign. If this political noise persists, it’s a clear sign that the economic woes are slowly turning (into) political (fodder).”

He said, “[Marcos Jnr] has to address inflation fast. He still has a chance to correct this and stir the economy out of the storm.”

Walden Bello, an adjunct professor of sociology at the State University of New York at Binghamton who has written on political economy, told This Week in Asia on Monday he was not surprised the Marcos and Duterte clans were now “at each other’s throats”.

He said behind the Marcos Jnr and Sara Duterte’s “unity” slogan, which had attracted millions of Filipino voters tired of the political attacks and counter-attacks, “was (a) pure alliance of convenience between powerful dynasties that were only interested in sharing power. When that basis for the alliance disappeared, then nothing could keep it together since no common ideals or ideologies supported it”.

“It was purely based on electoral arithmetic related to the 2022 elections and power-sharing afterward. When the elections were over and the desired sharing of power did not come about, then it was only a matter of time before it would dissolve,” he said, noting that Marcos Jnr had declined to give Sara Duterte her desired cabinet post of defence secretary.

He said, “the power struggle racking the government will be a huge distraction from giving attention to efficient administration and the promotion of economic growth and development. We’re facing, for all intents and purposes, a civil war. And the main casualties in this power struggle between self-centred elites will be ordinary people.”

In this power feud, “Duterte has the edge since he has a killer instinct, and Marcos really is a weak character, and it’s mainly Romualdez and (Marcos Jnr’s wife) Lisa that provide some spine,” according to Bello, a human-rights activist and former congressman.