A new poll shows former President Donald Trump to be the heavy front-runner in Iowa’s Republican presidential primary less than six months from its first-in-the-nation nominating contest, with more than 20 percentage points separating Trump from his closest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
The survey from veteran Iowa pollster Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register/NBC found that 42% of likely caucusgoers plan to support Trump as their first choice, while only 19% are firmly backing DeSantis. The remaining candidates all polled in single digits, or failed to register at all. (Scroll to the bottom of this post for the full results.) The Republican Iowa caucuses are Jan. 15 and generally determine which of the candidates have the support to continue in the primaries.
The poll was released the same week that a still-undetermined number of candidates — minus Trump — are taking the debate stage Wednesday in Milwaukee. The first GOP debate is happening on the heels of Trump’s fourth indictment this year, this one on charges he tried to subvert the 2020 election in Georgia. Trump said in an online post Sunday that he’s skipping this and future debates because the public already knows him and “what a successful presidency I had.”
There is plenty in the results for Trump to celebrate: Among evangelicals, a critical voting bloc in Iowa, 47% cited Trump as their first choice. Trump is also viewed favorably by 65% of likely GOP caucus voters, the highest favorability rating of any of the candidates.
And there are bright spots for the candidates trailing Trump too. The former president is roughly tied with the Florida governor (63% for Trump and 61% for DeSantis) in the percentage of likely caucusgoers citing either candidate as a first or second choice, or as someone they’re actively considering, suggesting there’s room for movement in the field over the next several months.
Trump and DeSantis are also pulling the same percentage of independent voters, meaning voters outside the hardcore GOP base. Trump is the choice of 21% of independents, while 19% support DeSantis. Others aren’t far behind — 13% of independents polled support South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and 12% back former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
Selzer told the Register this might be one way for candidates not named Trump to get a foothold in Iowa: “We’ve seen this happen in the past. A non-Trump candidate could say, ‘I’ve got to get people to come to the caucuses who are outside of the GOP base.’ So, if a candidate can grow the people who are coming to the caucuses, that is the way in, because Trump is strong with that base.”
The poll was based on phone interviews conducted Aug. 13 to 17 by Selzer & Co. with 406 likely caucusgoers. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Here are the percentages that cited each of the candidates as their top choice:
Ryan Binkley, Larry Elder, Asa Hutchinson, Perry Johnson, Francis Suarez: 0%