The Met Office has warned the Britain could bake under the longest September heatwave on record, with temperatures set to top 30C for an entire week. While temperatures just fell short of breaking the record for hottest day of the year on Wednesday, Thursday may be the day that it is finally broken. Temperatures in many parts of the southwest of England will reach 32C, putting them a hair’s breadth away from beating the 32.2C record set on June 10 this year in Chertsey, Surrey.
Although temperatures have risen this high before in September, it is unusual for the heat to last so long, with the Met Office predicting up to six days above 30C (86F) for some areas – and the peak likely on Saturday with 33C (91F) highs in London. The Met Office said Wednesday was the warmest September day since 2016, when 34.3C (97.74F) was recorded at Gravesend and Broadness in Kent on the 13th. Wednesday’s top UK temperature was 31.6C (88.9F) at Northolt in West London – followed by 31C (87.8F) at both Heathrow and Gatwick airports. The temperature set that day was the warmest of the year – the only time this century the hottest day has been in September.
Before then, you have to go back to 1954 when the warmest day of the year was September 1, with 29.4C (84.9F) recorded at Mildenhall, Suffolk. Prior to that, September 5, 1949, was that year’s joint warmest day when it reached 32.2C (89.96F) at Shoeburyness in Essex, Cromer in Norfolk, and Mildenhall, Suffolk. The fine conditions are set to continue until early next week at least, with more ‘unseasonably’ warm weather forecast for the second half of the month. Retailers are rushing to stock more sausages and beer amid predictions this weekend will be the biggest barbecue weekend of the year.
It is estimated households will get through 64 million sausages, eight million burgers and 100 million bottles of beer this week along. Tesco has predicted that demand for some barbecue foods will increase by 80 per cent. Despite this, the UK Health Security Agency has upgraded its heat health alert to amber across every region of England apart from the North East, where a yellow alert is in place. The six-day alert, which will run until Sunday night, warns of higher death rates and ‘significant impacts’ on vulnerable people and the NHS. These impacts are likely to be felt across the health service, with those aged above 65 or those with pre-existing respiratory or cardiovascular disease at greater risk.
It comes as autumn begins in an unseasonably warm fashion after a disappointing summer that saw Britain endure its sixth wettest July since records began. The Met Office said areas in West Yorkshire, Cornwall, Devon and Wales hit heatwave criteria yesterday, with more regions expected to be added to that list. While the hottest UK temperature recorded on Tuesday was 30.7C (87.3F) in West Sussex, forecasters said a new record is likely still to come. Some 13 weather stations have now marked this period as an official heatwave, which is at least three days in a row with daily maximum temperatures meeting or exceeding the heatwave temperature threshold – a figure which varies by region. Temperatures are also set to reach 27C in Northern Ireland and Scotland, the Met Office said.
The mercury could start to drop gradually at the weekend and there is a chance of thunderstorms breaking out from the North and West of the country, the Met Office added. Before then, the forecaster is watching a number of September heat records. If the hottest day of 2023 is achieved this week, it would be the first time since 2016 – and before that the 1950s – that the UK’s warmest day of the year has happened in September. In addition, the highest temperature of the year has happened in September in just four years over the last century. There is also a chance of tropical nights this week, which is when overnight temperatures remain above 20C (68F).
Met Office chief meteorologist Neil Armstrong said high pressure situated to the South East of the UK was bringing more settled conditions and temperatures well above average for the time of year. He added: ‘An active tropical cyclone season in the North Atlantic has helped to amplify the pattern across the North Atlantic, pushing the jet stream well to the north of the UK, allowing some very warm air to be drawn north. It’s a marked contrast to the much of meteorological summer, when the UK was on the northern side of the jet stream with cooler air and more unsettled weather.’ The Met Office confirmed it has not issued an extreme heat warning, which covers the UK and aligns with the wider national severe weather warning service.
The UKHSA however has issued a six-day heat health alert, which will run until Sunday night. It warns of higher death rates and ‘significant impacts’ on vulnerable people and the NHS. Health experts fear great swathes of the population, especially the elderly and those with dementia, will be hit by heat-related sickness — increasing demand for NHS services. NHS buildings are ‘ill-equipped’ to deal with the mercury rising to levels normally reserved for the early summer months, with hospitals frequently experiencing overheating incidents, with some even being forced to cancel operations or shut wards when temperatures soar.
Dr Adrian Boyle, president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, told MailOnline: ‘We know that climate change is making our summers hotter, and society needs to acknowledge and be alive to the serious health risk that extreme heat presents. Last summer we saw temperatures in excess of 40 degrees Celsius and there were more than 3,000 excess deaths associated with the heat. Hot weather is of particular risk to people who are frail or suffering from dementia who may be less able to respond to their body’s own warning signs. People experiencing mental ill health – especially those taking anti-psychotic medication – are also disproportionately affected, similarly people experiencing homelessness who may not be able to find shelter or easy access to water.’
One major concern, heat exhaustion is triggered by the body being unable to cool itself down. It can cause dizziness, excessive sweating and lead to potentially fatal heat stroke. There was also a warning issued to pet owners to ensure animals have access to fresh drinking water, good ventilation and shade from direct sunlight. Dr Justine Shotton, senior vice president or the British Veterinary Association, said: ‘We may be past the peak summer months but it’s important to remember that this September sun and heat is also dangerous for animals. Pets can be extremely susceptible to heat-related illnesses such as heatstroke, and can also suffer sunburn, heart conditions and breathing difficulties, many of which can sadly be fatal. Make sure all pets have access to fresh drinking water, good ventilation and shade from direct sunlight at all times.’
Meanwhile tourism chiefs and MPs criticised the ‘nannying’ warnings from the UK Health Security Agency about the weather yesterday. The heat health alert, used in situations that can potentially put the whole population at risk, advised people to ‘stay hydrated and keep cool’. But Conservative MP Peter Bone dismissed the ‘nanny state’ tone, saying: ‘There will be a time when there is a need for a real alert because temperatures are very high. The danger is if you issue them all the time, people ignore them. They ought to be careful about issuing alerts.’ Fellow Tory Giles Watling, MP for Clacton-on-Sea in Essex, added: ‘Obviously for those vulnerable people in society we’ve got to say be careful but I for one welcome the Indian summer. To issue a general warning to the whole population is overplaying it.’
The Met Office defines a heatwave as three consecutive days of a particular region exceeding a given threshold, which varies around the UK. For Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Cornwall and northern England, the threshold is 25C; for Somerset, Hampshire and the Welsh Borders, 26C; the south coast, East Anglia and the East Midlands, 27C; and for London and the home counties the threshold is 28C. As the climate continues warming because of rising greenhouse gases, these hot spells will become more frequent and severe, the Met Office said. By 2070, it says 30C for two days or more will become more likely, with southern parts of the UK projected to see this happen 16 times more frequently than today.
US-based, non-profit Climate Central calculated that the UK’s heatwave has been made five times more likely by climate change. Scientists are seeing heat records broken on a near-continuous scale, with the Earth having just experienced its hottest ever Northern Hemisphere summer, the World Meteorological Organisation announced today. Not only was it the hottest August on record, but it was the almost the hottest month ever measured, second only to July.
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