The latest poll in California’s U.S. Senate race shows Democratic Rep. Katie Porter and Republican former baseball star Steve Garvey neck and neck for second place behind frontrunning Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff with less than two weeks before the March 5 primary.
Thursday’s Public Policy Institute of California poll showed Schiff leading the pack with 24% support among likely voters, with Porter at 19%, Garvey at 18% and Rep. Barbara Lee of Oakland at 10%. A host of other candidates divided 21% of the vote, with just 6% undecided.
“At this point it looks like a three person race, with a lot of uncertainty about who the number two is,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC Statewide Survey director.
Schiff has consistently led in multiple polls and fundraising since launching his bid 13 months ago for the open seat held more than 30 years by the late Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein until her September death. The seat is currently occupied by appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler, who has declined to seek a full term.
The race has largely shaped up as a contest for the crucial second-place finish in California’s top-two primary in which the two candidates with the most votes regardless of party compete in a November runoff. Polls have showed Porter and Garvey battling to finish second.
Thursday’s PPIC poll was more encouraging to Porter than several others that have showed her slightly trailing Garvey. An Emerson College survey out Monday put Schiff at 28%, Garvey at 22%, Porter at 16% and Lee at 9%.
But Porter’s apparent 1-point edge in the PPIC poll was within its 3-percentage-point margin of error for the 1,075 likely voters surveyed. Garvey’s campaign Thursday touted results of a campaign-funded poll that more closely mirrored the Emerson results, putting Schiff at 27%, Garvey at 24%, Porter at 15% and Lee at 10%.
“I am humbled and energized by the support we’re seeing, especially among independent voters,” Garvey said in a statement.
Porter has maintained confidence she could emerge on top if she clears the primary, but has expressed alarm to her supporters in Thursday fundraising pitches that she may not survive past March, saying “undecided voters are not breaking for Katie Porter at a high enough rate, and that means we’re at serious risk of losing.”
Lee has soldiered on with planned campaign events in Santa Rosa on Friday, Sacramento and Bakersfield on Saturday, and in Oakland and San Francisco Sunday and Monday, despite consistently trailing Schiff, Porter and Garvey.
“The experience of a Black woman from California is badly needed,” Lee said this week on NBC. “Black women fight for our communities, for marginalized and vulnerable people, lifting people out of poverty, for children, for criminal justice reform.”
But Baldassare said “we’re not seeing any movement over time” in Lee’s fourth-place polling. Since December when PPIC last polled in the race, Schiff has climbed from 21% to 24%, Porter from 16% to 19%, Garvey from 10% to 18% and Lee from 8% to 10%.
Thursday’s poll found independent voters breaking 19% for Schiff, 19% for Porter, and 15% for Garvey.
“Steve Garvey over time has been able to sort of gather more and more support among Republicans, and in this latest poll that’s why we saw his numbers jump up so much,” Baldassare said.
Turnout will be an important factor in deciding the close race, Baldassare said. Like other recent surveys, the PPIC poll found Schiff and Garvey more popular among voters 45 and older, with younger voters drawn to Porter.
But older voters more reliably turn out for primaries, especially those like this year’s where there’s not much drama at the top of the ticket with President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump leading the Democratic and Republican primaries by large margins.
The PPIC poll found 64% of California Republicans would nominate Trump, up from 53% in September, and far more than the 17% who would choose former ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, the only other major Republican in the race.
The poll found 82% of Democrats would vote for Biden, and that he is favored 55% to 32% by California likely voters. It also found likely voters favoring Democrats over Republicans 61% to 36% in races for the House of Representatives.
Such figures are at odds with another of the poll’s findings, that a growing number of Californians think things in the state are going in the wrong direction. That figure now is at 57%, up from 44% when Biden took office in Jan. 2021.
The rising discontent could spell trouble for Democrats who have wielded overwhelming control over California government for years. A Republican hasn’t won a statewide race since 2006.
The poll found voters’ top concerns were jobs, the economy and inflation (20%), homelessness (18%), housing costs (14%), crime (11%) and illegal immigration (10%). It found 59% would vote for Proposition 1, the $6.38 billion bond measure for mental health treatment facilities and housing for the homeless.
Baldassare said it remains to be seen how turnout will shape the Senate race.
“So much is going to depend on the turnout, that’s the wild card,” Baldassare said. “For Katie Porter, it’s a question of can she get the lower propensity voters to turn out. For Steve Garvey, will he continue to be able to consolidate not only Republicans but Republican-leaning independents?”