The Broncos swapped out a string of first-time head coaches for a Super Bowl champion. They beefed up their offensive line and retooled their roster with dozens of new players. Brought back Vance Joseph as defensive coordinator.
More than all of those changes, however, perhaps the single biggest question mark hovering over Denver this fall is the play of quarterback Russell Wilson.
His first year in the orange and blue was bad. He knows it. Everybody saw it. He’s not that interested in rehashing it.
But for the Broncos to get where they want to go, he has to play much better. So, here’s a five-step plan for rebooting Russ.
None of it’s rocket science. A bad habit to fix here, a change to approach there. All of it geared toward, as coach Sean Payton puts it, keeping Wilson from having to operate from the “high dive” as frequently as he did last year.
He can make life easier for himself. The Broncos should be able to make life easier for him, too. If all of it happens, there’s still no guarantee he bounces back to being an All-Pro, but he’ll have a chance to play much more efficiently.
And that’s a good start for Denver.
Protect, protect, protect
Wilson’s mobility and outside-the-pocket ability has served him well throughout his career, but it’s also meant he’s been prone to getting sacked at a high rate. Even by his standards, however, he got sacked way too often in 2022. His 55 sacks worked out to a 10.2% sack percentage, according to Pro Football Reference data. That’s the second-highest of his career (10.7% in 2018). The Broncos overall had a 9.9% sack rate, the highest mark for the franchise since Dan Reeves’ final year as head coach in 1992.
Conversely, longtime New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees only had a sack rate above 4.7% one time in his 15 years with Payton as his head coach. Career rate in 228 starts for New Orleans: 3.8%. Wilson’s not going to replicate that, but even getting below his career average of 8.5% would be a win for him and the Broncos.
That takes multiple factors clicking. Included, of course, is better play – which also likely requires better health — from Denver’s offensive line.
Said center Lloyd Cushenberry of Wilson, “He’s going to be as good as we let him be up front.”
On-time delivery
Wilson has a reputation of getting to the Broncos facility early – really early – and leaving late. That’s all well and good, but between snap and whistle on Sundays this fall, he’d do well to be right on time rather than on one end of the spectrum or the other.
This is one of the areas where Payton and his offensive apparatus — coordinator Joe Lombardi, pass game coordinator John Morton and quarterbacks coach Davis Webb – can help Wilson most. If he gets the ball out quickly, he’s going to get hit less and also find himself less frequently having to freelance.
Wilson so far is speaking the on-time gospel.
“You’re always going through your progressions, one, two, three, four, five,” he said. “Some plays are different than others and it depends on the concepts and everything else. But I think the biggest thing is getting the ball into our playmakers’ hands. Whatever way that is.
“We’ve got a lot of ways to do that – Coach Payton really knows how to do that, dial it up.”
If Wilson follows that course as rigorously as he follows his training and work habits, he should see a big turnaround in efficiency.
In, out, up, down, on, off
Another in the “efficiency” category.
Sounds simple, but the offense has a much better chance at succeeding if it gets to the line of scrimmage with 15 seconds on the clock rather than six. Two beats to decide whether to change the play instead of one. An extra moment to identify a blitzer or slide his protection.
Too often, Denver was too late to the line last year and stuck reacting rather than attacking.
Payton promised on his first day in February that the Empower Field crowd wouldn’t need to count down the play clock like it did last year and also made it clear fulfilling that promise falls mostly to him as the play-caller.
“Ninety percent of the errors come from the sender. I’m the sender,” Payton said. “My eyes aren’t getting any better, but it’s important that I’m quick. … The obvious thing is to get to the line of scrimmage with as much time as possible. The less time you have, the less you can do at the line of scrimmage. In and out, up and down, on and off quickly with the personnel. Every once and a while as a play-caller, you can get caught watching the game. You need to press that button right when the play ends. You have to start thinking. If it’s first-and-10 and you call a play — I’m pretty upbeat and I would say glass half full, but I’m looking at my second-and-10 thoughts and assuming it’s incomplete, then quickly shifting gears. Getting the play in fast to the quarterback is the key.”
That gets easier rather than more difficult as the regular season arrives and the play sheet each week is tailored to a specific opponent.
“When you have a fixed game plan, then it’s easy to know the formations, and by the end of the week, you have it,” Payton said.
Go forward, young-(ish) man
If you watch any batch of Wilson’s career highlights, you’ll see a signature move dating to his college days. He looks dead-to-rights in the pocket, then reverse-pirouettes out of trouble toward the perimeter and makes a big play down the field.
Last year, that did him more harm than good. Nowhere in classic quarterback training is retreating further from the line of scrimmage typically advised, but Wilson’s been an exception to the rule for most of his career. It’s interesting, then, to watch what looks like a clear training camp focus on getting him to climb forward in the pocket — not the easiest because Wilson is shorter than most NFL quarterbacks and virtually all of the linemen in front of him — and use his mobility from there.
“It’s a fine balance,” Lombardi said. “He’s got such great instincts in the (pocket), but also recognizing, ‘Hey, this is the pocket really breaking down, you’ve got to go,’ vs. ‘there’s a little push here, but there’s still room to find a place to throw the football.’ It’s something he’s always aware of and stuff that they work on in drill work. Just finding that right balance because he’s made so many plays off schedule. You don’t want to lose that.
“But also make sure we’re finding the plays when things are going right and not bailing too early.”
Wilson got caught moving backward against Arizona and was lucky to get a fumble back. When he presses forward and gets either left or right amid pressure, though, he’s still pretty darn dangerous outside the pocket.
Rely on the run
The Broncos built this team to run the football. They’ve said they’re going to be committed to running the football.
The hard part, of course, is actually doing it against NFL defenses.
Wilson was at his best in Seattle when the Seahawks had dominant run games. It makes life easier for any quarterback and when you’ve got one who is comfortable operating on the move and in the bootleg game like Wilson is, all the better.
He even showed a little bit of that promise late in a lost 2022 season. Christmas Day’s 51-14 loss to the Los Angeles Rams was a debacle for all involved on the Broncos sideline — Wilson included — but in the other three games he played after Nathaniel Hackett gave up playcalling duties, Wilson had seven touchdowns against three interceptions, a passer rating north of 100 twice and, most importantly, the Broncos scored 27, 24 and 31 points.
That sounds like the start of a recipe for 2023. Now it’s up to Wilson and Payton to get to cooking.
Wait. Is that still a thing?
Drew Brees after age 35
One of the questions surrounding Russell Wilson during last year’s struggles was whether or not the then-34-year-old quarterback had lost the physical tools that made him a nine-time Pro Bowler. Perhaps the fountain of youth is as simple as receiving playcalls from Sean Payton. It certainly worked for Drew Brees, who aged gracefully in his late 30s playing for Payton. Here’s a look at what he did from age 35 and on:
| Year | Age | Starts | Comp. % | Yds | TD | Int | AY/A | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 35 | 16 | 69.2 | 4952 | 33 | 17 | 7.4 | 97.0 |
| 2015 | 36 | 15 | 68.3 | 4870 | 32 | 11 | 8.0 | 101.0 |
| 2016 | 37 | 16 | 70.0 | 5208 | 37 | 15 | 7.8 | 101.7 |
| 2017 | 38 | 16 | 72.0 | 4334 | 23 | 8 | 8.3 | 103.9 |
| 2018 | 39 | 15 | 74.4 | 3992 | 32 | 5 | 9.0 | 115.7 |
| 2019 | 40 | 11 | 74.3 | 2979 | 27 | 4 | 8.8 | 116.3 |
| 2020 | 41 | 12 | 70.5 | 2942 | 24 | 6 | 8.1 | 106.4 |
Drew vs. Russ
A side-by-side comparison between former Saints quarterback Drew Brees and Russell Wilson from 2012-20.
| Completion % | ||
| Year | Brees | Wilson |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 63.0 | 64.1 |
| 2013 | 68.6 | 63.1 |
| 2014 | 69.2 | 63.1 |
| 2015 | 68.3 | 68.1 |
| 2016 | 70.0 | 64.7 |
| 2017 | 72.0 | 61.3 |
| 2018 | 74.4 | 65.6 |
| 2019 | 74.3 | 66.1 |
| 2020 | 70.5 | 68.8 |
| Touchdown % | ||
| Year | Brees | Wilson |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 6.4 | 6.6 |
| 2013 | 6.0 | 6.4 |
| 2014 | 5.0 | 4.4 |
| 2015 | 5.1 | 7.0 |
| 2016 | 5.5 | 3.8 |
| 2017 | 4.3 | 6.1 |
| 2018 | 6.5 | 8.2 |
| 2019 | 7.1 | 6.0 |
| 2020 | 6.2 | 7.2 |
| Interception % | ||
| Year | Brees | Wilson |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| 2013 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| 2014 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| 2015 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| 2016 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| 2017 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| 2018 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 2019 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 2020 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| Sack % | ||
| Year | Brees | Wilson |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 3.7 | 7.7 |
| 2013 | 5.4 | 9.8 |
| 2014 | 4.2 | 8.5 |
| 2015 | 4.7 | 8.5 |
| 2016 | 3.9 | 7.0 |
| 2017 | 3.6 | 7.2 |
| 2018 | 3.4 | 10.7 |
| 2019 | 3.1 | 8.5 |
| 2020 | 3.2 | 7.8 |
| QB Rating | ||
| Year | Brees | Wilson |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 96.3 | 100.0 |
| 2013 | 104.7 | 101.2 |
| 2014 | 97.0 | 95.0 |
| 2015 | 101.0 | 110.1 |
| 2016 | 101.7 | 92.6 |
| 2017 | 103.9 | 95.4 |
| 2018 | 115.7 | 110.9 |
| 2019 | 116.3 | 106.3 |
| 2020 | 106.4 | 105.1 |
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