Key events
Whether or not Donald Trump shows up to the first debate of GOP presidential candidates, it’s tough out there for his competitors. The Guardian’s David Smith took a look at the fortunes of some of the other Republicans who have thrown their hats into the ring, and what he found was bleak:
For Asa Hutchinson, former governor of Arkansas, there were boos and chants of “Trump! Trump!”. For Francis Suarez, mayor of Miami, there were jeers and cries of “Traitor!” And perhaps most tellingly, there was no Florida governor Ron DeSantis at all.
The recent Turning Point USA conference brought thousands of young conservatives to Florida and there was no doubting the main attraction: former president Donald Trump, who made a glitzy entrance accompanied by giant stage sparklers. In a less than rigorous poll, 86% of attendees gave Trump as their first choice for president; DeSantis, who polled 19% last year, was down to 4%.
Events and numbers like this are cause for sleepless nights among those Republican leaders and donors desperate to believe it would be different this time. The Never Trump forces bet heavily on DeSantis as the coming man and the premise that Trump’s campaign would collapse under the weight of myriad legal problems.
But what about Doug Burgum, Asa Hutchinson and, perhaps most surprisingly, Mike Pence?
The three are considered among the major GOP presidential contenders, but Politico reports that none of them has qualified for the debate stage. It’s a bit of a shock for Pence, since he was Trump’s vice-president for four years, though has very publicly fallen out with him. Here’s why he hasn’t yet made the cut:
Former Vice President Mike Pence has also hit the polling threshold. But unlike the other six candidates, it’s not clear if he will meet the individual donor threshold — 40,000 unique donors, with 200 donors in 20 different states or territories — that the others have. “We will qualify. Getting 40,000 donors in just a few short weeks is a challenge,” Pence said on “Fox and Friends” on last week. “We’re not offering gift cards, not offering kickbacks or tickets to soccer games, just traveling.”
The fates of Burgum and Hutchinson are less surprising. Burgum is the current governor of North Dakota and Hutchinson the former governor of Arkansas who also worked in George W Bush’s administration, but neither is much of a household name. Both appear to have several obstacles ahead of them if they want to make the debate stage:
Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson is only one national poll away from meeting the polling threshold, after registering at 1 percent in the Fox Business Iowa poll and a second survey from the same outlet in South Carolina, also released on Sunday. But he still needs to amass 40,000 donors and was well short of that number at last count.
Some long-shot candidates have rolled out outlandish schemes to try to meet the donor threshold. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, for example, has promised people who give him a buck $20 gift cards in return, and he said earlier this week he had hit his goal.
Burgum — who has run millions of dollars worth of TV advertising in Iowa and New Hampshire — is still in search of two national polls showing him at at least 1 percent, after meeting that threshold in Iowa and a previously-released survey from the University of New Hampshire in the Granite State.
Trump mulls skipping first debate
Donald Trump is a shoo-in for the first debate of GOP presidential candidates, scheduled for 23 August in Milwaukee. In order to qualify, the party requires candidates to pledge to support the eventual nominee, have at least 40,000 unique donors spread across a minimum of 20 states, and poll at least 1% in at least three national polls.
The former president blows through all those criteria. He’s been raking in cash and dominating polls ever since announcing a renewed White House campaign last year. But in typical Trump fashion, he says he’s considering skipping the first debate. He told Reuters why in an interview last month:
In a telephone interview with Reuters, Trump said “possibly not” when asked if he would be at the debate, to be hosted by Fox News in Milwaukee on Aug. 23.
The debate will be the first chance for voters to see the Republican presidential candidates square off against each other.
Trump called Fox News, which he has criticized for not covering his campaign events, a “hostile network” and said he saw little merit in debating candidates like former New Jersey governor Chris Christie who are far behind him in polling.
“Why would I give them time to make statements? Why would I do that when I’m leading them by 50 points and 60 points,” Trump said.
Trump remains at the top as lineup for first GOP debate emerges
Good morning, US politics blog readers. One month from today, we will be digesting the aftermath of the first GOP presidential debate, which is set for 23 August in Milwaukee. Such events are a staple of the presidential nomination process, and two polls released over the weekend revealed the contours of the Republican race are largely the same as ever. Fox Business surveys of early voting states Iowa and South Carolina show Donald Trump with a big lead over all his competitors. In the former, Ron DeSantis and Tim Scott are the distant runners-up for second and third place, respectively, while in the latter, it’s former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley and then DeSantis.
But the polls are not all bad news for the Republicans aiming to oust Trump as the party’s nominee. Six GOP candidates have qualified for the debate stage based on, among other things, their polling results, Politico reports. These include Trump, DeSantis, Haley and Scott, along with Chris Christie and Vivek Ramaswamy, and it’s possible other candidates, such as Mike Pence, will qualify in the weeks to come. Debates can give candidates important opportunities to stand out in the field, but whether those who qualify show up is a different matter. We’ll tell you more about that later today.
Here’s what’s happening today:
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Joe Biden has no public events scheduled, but press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre will brief reporters at 3.30pm eastern time.
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Remember Allen West? Or Scott Walker? They’ll be among the ex-lawmakers speaking at the National Conservative Student Conference, which begins today in Washington DC. Ramaswamy, who is actually seeking office, is the sole presidential candidate billed to appear.
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The House judiciary committee may this week vote to hold Facebook co-founder Mark Zuckerberg in contempt, Punchbowl News reports.