(NewsNation) — Former President Donald Trump confirmed his place as the GOP frontrunner with an emphatic 30-point win in Iowa on Monday, but the primary in New Hampshire is expected to be closer.
Trump leads former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley by nine points in the Granite State, according to polling from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ Election Center. That contest could determine whether the race continues into March.
“If Nikki Haley does not win in New Hampshire, it becomes almost impossible to imagine a scenario in which the race is still being contested on Super Tuesday,” said NewsNation Political Director Chris Stirewalt.
Terry Holt, a Republican strategist and former advisor to Speaker John Boehner, also thinks the competition could be settled before March 5 when 15 states hold nominating contests.
“Somebody is going to have to come on and beat Donald Trump somewhere and if it’s not New Hampshire, and it’s not South Carolina, then it’s nowhere,” Holt said.
Others think the margin of victory will be the deciding factor, even if Trump wins both states.
“As long as it’s close in one of those places then I think it will go until Super Tuesday,” said Boyd Matheson, a GOP strategist and radio host.
New Hampshire – Jan. 23
Recent history suggests the New Hampshire primary is a better predictor of the eventual GOP nominee than the Iowa caucuses.
Since 2000, George W. Bush has been the only Republican candidate to lose New Hampshire but still win the nomination. Every GOP presidential candidate since Bush has won the state’s primary, including Trump in 2016.
Haley is looking to build on recent momentum and polls suggest New Hampshire is her best chance to defeat the former president.
Current polling (as of Jan. 18)
- Donald Trump (44.4%)
- Nikki Haley (34.7%)
- Ron DeSantis (5.7%)
What could change: Haley got a bump in New Hampshire after former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie dropped out of the race but with Vivek Ramaswamy’s exit, now Trump is seeing a boost. Ramaswamy was polling around 4.5% in the state and has thrown his support behind the former president.
“Nikki Haley is two touchdowns behind with five minutes left to play in the game. She needs to score big in New Hampshire and then basically recover an onside kick in South Carolina and take it into the endzone,” said Stirewalt.
To achieve that comeback, Matheson expects Haley to ignore Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, which she has already started to do.
“Every time she talks about a president she’s going to talk about Biden and Trump together. It will be: ‘It’s time to end the Biden-Trump era,'” he said.
Primary format: The New Hampshire primary is open to those who aren’t affiliated with either major party, roughly 40% of the state’s voters. However, registered Democrats and Republicans can’t cross over and vote in the other party’s primary.
South Carolina – Feb. 24
Trump won the South Carolina primary in 2016 with roughly one-third of the vote but he’s in a stronger position today. Current polls show him around 50% while Haley, the state’s former governor, sits near 25%.
According to a recent Emerson College poll, Haley is doing slightly better than Trump among independents, 37% to 33%. That matters because South Carolina is an open primary, meaning any voter can participate in either party’s contest.
Current polling (as of Jan. 18):
- Donald Trump (53.7%)
- Nikki Haley (25.3%)
- Ron DeSantis (9.4%)
What could change: The biggest question is what will happen with DeSantis. The Florida governor finished second in Iowa and is currently running third in New Hampshire but said Wednesday he plans to stay in the race until Super Tuesday. All three political experts agreed that a three-person race benefits Trump.
“(Haley) doesn’t have to win South Carolina but it would have to be very close in her home state and DeSantis might be enough to hamper that,” said Stirewalt.
Trump’s funding advantage is also a major factor, Holt pointed out.
“(Haley’s) going to need an avalanche of support and a mountain of money to flow into her campaign in a very short period of time,” he said.
Primary format: South Carolina is an open primary which means voters can cast a ballot in either party’s race. That allows voters to cross party lines.
Super Tuesday – March 5
GOP nominating contests: Alabama, Alaska, American Samoa, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia.
National polling (as of Jan. 18):
- Donald Trump (62.2%)
- Nikki Haley (12.4%)
- Ron DeSantis (10.5%)
In 2016, it took Trump until May to secure enough delegates to clinch the GOP nomination. Back then he was a political outsider but today he’s running more like an incumbent, with the support of the Republican establishment and everything that comes with it.
“He has the consultants, he has the endorsements and he has the power of inertia,” said Stirewalt. “That all works to Trump’s advantage.”
But that doesn’t mean the outcome is a foregone conclusion.
“The people who are most pressing to rush this thing through are the Biden campaign and the Trump campaign because they don’t want to waste resources,” Matheson said.
As it currently stands, Trump has 20 delegates, DeSantis has 9 and Haley has 8. The eventual nominee needs at least 1,215 out of a possible 2,429 to win. About one-third of all delegates will be decided on Super Tuesday.