(NewsNation) — The Iowa State Fair kicks off Thursday, and visitors are sure to see a few things this year: A 600 lbs butter cow, dozens of deep-fried delicacies, and a full slate of presidential candidates posing for pictures with both.
The Hawkeye State’s annual fair is one of the largest in the country and has become a political rite of passage for White House hopefuls.
“It’s an opportunity to talk with regular people that are out there living their lives, and Iowans tend to be fairly well-versed in politics,” said Tim Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa.
Here’s what to look out for at this year’s fair.
Why does it matter?
Iowans will be the first to leave their mark on the 2024 race when the state holds its Republican presidential caucus in January. That makes the fair an obvious campaign opportunity, but if history is any indicator, the event can just easily turn into a campaign liability.
It’s where candidates’ “retail politics” skills are put to the test and off-the-cuff moments are common.
“If you have a hard time thinking on your feet, if you’re not gregarious, this can be a perilous situation,” said NewsNation political editor Chris Stirewalt.
In a now infamous exchange at the fair’s soapbox in 2011, then-candidate Mitt Romney told a heckler that “corporations are people, my friend.” The remark was widely seen as a political gaffe. Romney lost the state a few months later before eventually securing the GOP nomination.
Others have benefited from a strong performance. Former President Donald Trump, for example, saw his stock rise among Iowa voters after attending the fair in 2015.
“The hype around the Iowa State Fair is in part, a media creation, but it’s a media creation with consequences,” Stirewalt said. “That’s why snubbing the fair and not attending would be a mistake.”
Who could rise to the occasion?
With 44% support among Iowa’s GOP voters, Trump is the clear frontrunner, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 20%, according to a recent NYT/Siena College poll.
Trump and DeSantis both plan to attend on Saturday, setting up an opportunity for the GOP favorites to differentiate themselves.
Strirewalt thinks the environment lends itself to a few challengers who are currently trailing, notably South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
“[Scott] is quick on his feet, that can be good,” he said. “I would say the same for Vivek Ramaswamy.”
Others, like former Vice President Mike Pence and former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley, will be looking to jumpstart their campaigns, which have yet to gain much traction.
The fair’s political soapbox is the most likely place for a significant moment. That’s where candidates are given 20 minutes to make their case in front of a crowd.
“If a person is willing to stand up there and take the fire and give good answers, that can be a good opportunity to get your message across,” Hagle said.
Why is Iowa so important?
An awkward moment at the fair probably won’t make or break a campaign but a poor performance at the Iowa caucuses can.
“We’re not the kingmaker, but we separate the contenders from the pretenders,” Hagle said.
A finish outside the top three in Iowa typically doesn’t bode well for candidates’ prospects in future primaries but a lot can change between the fair in the summer and the caucuses in January.
“Iowa has a history of elevating lesser candidates, of bringing people from behind, and of big swings in the winter and fall in the months leading up to the caucuses,” Stirewalt said.
Despite surging in the polls after the 2015 fair, Trump ultimately lost the state to Ted Cruz before going on to win the presidency. Ben Carson, who came out of the event in second place that year, finished fourth in Iowa.
Is anything different this year?
In addition to the usual soapbox speeches, this year Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds will be hosting a series of “fair-side chats” with GOP candidates. Those will be one-on-one public conversations with the governor.
Thirteen candidates have agreed to participate including: DeSantis, Scott, Pence, Haley, Ramaswamy, radio host Larry Elder, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, businessman Ryan Binkley, businessman Perry Johnson and former Texas Rep. Will Hurd.
The current leader, Trump, is not planning to participate, although he is expected to attend the fair.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.