Hun Sen, Cambodia’s authoritarian leader who has ruled the country for almost four decades, has handed power to his son, Hun Manet, in a historic transfer of power
Under Hun Sen’s rule, opposition figures were jailed or forced to flee the country, and independent media shuttered. The question now is whether this generational shift will bring any change.
Manet, the eldest of Hun Sen’s children, was born in 1977, during the brutal rule of the Khmer Rouge, which is estimated to have killed 2 million Cambodians. Hun Sen was originally a Khmer Rouge commander but defected to Vietnam and went on to help overthrow the regime.
Hun Manet grew up in the 1980s in Phnom Penh, and experienced the turmoil of civil war. But his life has also been privileged. Aged 18 he went to study at the US military academy at West Point, becoming the first Cambodian to graduate from the academy, in 1999. He later studied for a master’s degree from New York University and a PhD from the University of Bristol, both in economics.
Manet went on to climb the ranks of the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces, serving as deputy in his father’s bodyguards, commander of counter-terrorism, commander of the army, and deputy commander-in-chief.
He also became head of the youth wing of the ruling Cambodian People’s party and joined the party’s standing committee. In 2021, Hun Sen announced that Manet was his chosen successor.
After winning a seat in the national assembly in last month’s election – which was widely criticised as a sham – he became eligible to be prime minister.
Facebook and family pictures
Manet is part of a wider generational shift that is happening across Cambodia’s leadership, as members of the old guard are replaced. Whether it will mark a change of approach to leadership is hard to tell.
On Facebook, where Manet has 1.2 million followers, he shares clips of political speeches, and photos taken as he greets supporters. There are also snippets of family life – he is married to Pich Chanmony, the daughter of a politician, who has appeared alongside him on the campaign trail, giving out love heart gestures from the top of campaign cars. They have three children together, and Manet has shared pictures of family trips out, as well as of his son’s favourite toy cars.
His speeches echo the messaging of Hun Sen, who presents himself as having brought peace and stability to a country that has faced the horrors of the Khmer Rouge and war.
In a recent speech before the election, Manet portrayed exiled opposition leader Sam Rainsy – who had called for people to spoil their ballots to protest against Hun Sen’s rule – as seeking to destabilise the country, and undermine the economy.
Manet contrasted Rainsy’s intentions with those of Hun Sen. His father, he said, “is first afraid of the country being in a situation where national unity is fractured; afraid of the country facing war again”. His father, he added, had brought jobs and better living conditions, and he does whatever he can “to maintain peace, and stability”.
Authorities banned Rainsy from running for office for 25 years after he urged people to void their ballot papers. He lives in exile but other opposition figures in the country have faced detention. Opposition leader Kem Sokha was convicted of treason months before the election, and sentenced to 27 years. He is serving his sentence under house arrest.
Hun Sen still ‘holds all the cards’
Under Hun Sen, Cambodia has moved closer to China, benefiting from investment from Beijing. After the election – which was condemned as neither free nor fair by the US – China’s president, Xi Jinping, sent Hun Sen a personal message of congratulations.
Analysis of Hun Manet’s diplomatic engagements suggest his focus prior to the succession was on building ties with neighbouring countries, as well as China and Japan, according to research by the Asia Power Index, which is produced by the Lowy Institute, a Sydney-based thinktank.
It would be hard for Cambodia to move even closer to Beijing, “short of becoming a province of China”, said Dr Sophal Ear, an associate professor at Arizona State University’s Thunderbird school of global management.
Despite the transition of power, analysts say Hun Sen will remain a powerful force. He will remain head of the ruling Cambodian People’s party (CPP), and has said he will become head of the Senate and of the Supreme Council of the King.
As leader of the party, Hun Sen “holds all the cards”, said Ear, and his various titles will give him powers that exceed those of a prime minister.
“In theory, if his son were to go rogue, he could have him removed from the CPP and therefore gone from the National Assembly which would then mean he’s no longer PM,” said Ear: “He will remain in the driver’s seat, at the very least like a co-pilot, for a long time.”
Reuters contributed reporting.