Winners and losers in the Shohei Ohtani derby

It’s about the money, isn’t it?

It’s all about the money.

It’s always about the money, actually. That’s how we keep score, even as so many who follow baseball turn themselves inside out when another player scores a big contract.

Thus explains the massive shock that accompanied Saturday’s word of Shohei Ohtani’s next destination, and particularly the record-setting price tag it took to get him to switch his workplace from Anaheim to Los Angeles: $700 million over 10 years.

That he agreed to sign with the Dodgers shouldn’t have been a huge surprise, although I was dubious that he would. Just because the Dodgers have the ability to pay beyond market value doesn’t mean they’re always willing to do so.

But they did in this case, to acquire a player that the organization had pursued since he was in high school in Japan. And they did so creatively enough – with reported salary deferrals that assure that Ohtani will be paid well into his retirement, whenever that takes place – to add the best player in the world to an already potent lineup without sending their payroll soaring past the luxury tax limits.

Normally those calculations use a contract’s annual average value, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that a “majority” of the $700 million is deferred, and those deferrals could help the Dodgers reduce the luxury tax bite. Also, the further ahead money is deferred, the less it’s worth in present-day value. So yeah, it’s $700 million, but …

Ohtani said in his Instagram post announcing the deal that he would “pledge to always do what’s best for the team.” Arranging that contract to create payroll room for others seems to qualify.

And consider: Now, we laugh when Bobby Bonilla gets his yearly payment from the New York Mets. Decades from now, people will refer to a “Shohei Ohtani” contract, almost certainly in less sarcastic terms. If that’s not life-changing money, I don’t know what is.

With such a humongous contract for a position player, often the first reaction is, “Yeah, but can he pitch?” Ohtani won’t be a full two-way player again until 2025, following his second Tommy John surgery in six years in September, but I have to think that the Dodgers came away convinced that pitching is again in his future – especially since their team physician, Dr. Neal ElAttrache of the Kerlan-Jobe Institute, performed the procedure.

And while the value of one guy who can perform two full-time tasks might be incalculable, this could be as close as we get to a true estimate of what that phenomenon is worth. (Meanwhile, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and general manager Brandon Gomes still need to add a starter or two this winter. They didn’t do it last August and it bit them in the postseason. They can’t make that mistake again.

This was obviously a smashing triumph for Ohtani and agent Nez Balelo, who managed the free agency process masterfully from their end. They maintained the cone of silence all the way up to the moment of Ohtani’s Instagram post, which could be considered the 2023 version of LeBron James’ “The Decision” TV special.

The lack of information produced hype in its own way, again thanks to social media. Witness the frenzy over the flight of a private plane from John Wayne Airport to Toronto on Friday afternoon. The speculation was that it was Shohei, headed east to sign with the Blue Jays. The reality: The flight actually carried Canadian businessman and “Shark Tank” investor Robert Herjavec.

Note: Herjavec can’t pitch either. Nor can he hit as far as we know.

Historic day for baseball in Canada 🇨🇦 pic.twitter.com/oSOdNVhlQY

— Peace and Love Sports (@petetheleafsfan) December 8, 2023

This was, of course, a huge, resounding victory for the Dodgers, and should not only manifest itself on the field – consider Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Ohtani back-to-back-to-back at the top of a lineup that scored 906 runs last year – but will keep the payroll manageable, as noted above, and also significantly boost the franchise’s bottom line even beyond ticket sales (and get ready for higher prices).

The Angels did add up to $20 million a year in business and marketing arrangements with Japanese companies and advertisers because of Ohtani. The Dodgers, with their history, success, international profile and popularity, and not insignificantly an already established brand name in Asia, could easily triple that, making this a deal that almost does pay for itself.

Oh, by the way: ESPN announced Monday it will air the Dodgers-Padres season-opening games from Seoul, March 20-21. The ripple effect has begun.

This signing was definitely a win for Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, whose frankness at last week’s Winter Meetings in Nashville – “Clearly, Shohei is our No. 1 priority,” he said, matter of factly – stunned a baseball world that assumed any such disclosure would put a team out of the running. Friedman and Gomes obviously shared that assumption, and I’d say they owe their manager an apology for overreacting.

And there’s an unsung winner in all of this. Jonathan Lansner, SCNG’s business columnist, wrote a column on July 6 (before his latest elbow injury) about Ohtani’s prospective free agency, using his spreadsheet and taking into account Ohtani’s one-of-a-kind talent as hitter and pitcher, his fan and marketing appeal and his importance to prospective suitors. The kicker, as he wrote:

“Yah, ballplayers get wage inflation, too! Add in that pricing factor and the spreadsheet says Ohtani’s worth $701 million over 10 years. That’s $70 million per season.”

Boom! Most of the estimates/guesses leading up to this had Ohtani signing for between $500 million and $600 million before he required Tommy John surgery. Our guy went $1 million over what the Dodgers ultimately agreed to even knowing Ohtani couldn’t pitch in 2024. The next time I need help picking lotto numbers, I know who I’m calling.

The losers in this case? Isn’t it obvious?

In retrospect, it’s easy to insist that Angels general manager Perry Minasian should have sought a deal for Ohtani well before last August’s trade deadline, acquiring assets for a player whom most assumed would not be coming back. But it’s never that simple, and I saluted Minasian at the time for instead rolling the dice and trying to bolster the team when the team was playing well, the idea being that making a late-season push and potentially getting to the postseason might have convinced Shohei to stay in Anaheim.