Labour holds Sunderland city council in first result of the night, according to partial count
We have our first council result of the night – from Sunderland, where, according to partial results tallied by the BBC, Labour has held the city council.
According to BBC News, Labour won the first four seats declared to ensure it retains control of the council, having entered the elections with 47 of the 75 seats.
The Guardian uses data from the Press Association which waits until all 25 seats are counted (which explains why our election tallies are different to those from the BBC and Sky, and why our results will appear later than theirs).
Prof Sir John Curtice, the psephologist and lead election analyst for the BBC, said that the city – where 61% voted for Brexit – has its own unique characteristics that makes it a good area for Reform to pick up votes.
“Above all this is a very Eurosceptic part of the country,” Curtice, who said that Reform has put a candidate in every single ward in Sunderland, told the BBC. “It is also somewhere where Ukip has done well in local elections in the past.
“We have now seen Reform outpoll the Conservatives in each of the ward results we have got in for Sunderland so far.”
Reform’s leader Richard Tice has claimed his party was outperforming the Tories in Sunderland.
“Outstanding early results in Sunderland,” he wrote in a post on X. “We expect to beat Tories in majority of 25 seats in Sunderland.”
Outstanding early results in Sunderland ….we expect to beat Tories in majority of 25 seats in Sunderland https://t.co/SpTOskO3zN
— Richard Tice 🇬🇧 (@TiceRichard) May 2, 2024
As well as to the city council in Sunderland, Reform is running a full slate of candidates in Bolton, where it is in alliance with Bolton for Change, a registered political party set up by two former candidates of the Brexit party.
Other places to watch in terms of Reform’s local elections campaign include Hartlepool, where Tice is to run again after coming third there in 2019, just over 1,000 votes behind the Tories.
You can read my colleague Ben Quinn’s profile of Reform’s election strategy here:
Key events
The Conservatives have retained control of Broxbourne, in Waltham Cross, Hertfordshire. This has not come as much of a surprise to commentators as the Tories held 27 of the 30 seats, and only 10 are being contested. You can follow all the results live on our tracker here.
Labour takes control of Hartlepool from Conservatives – Sky News
The Labour party has said it has gained control of Hartlepool from the Conservatives, according to Sky News, in a symbolic electoral victory the party has reportedly called a “groundbreaking moment”.
This result is not official. The Guardian uses data compiled from the Press Association which waits until all seats are counted to gives us a comprehensive result.
BREAKING Labour calling Hartlepool council a Labour gain.
A Labour Party spokesperson “a groundbreaking moment” after they lost the by-election in 2021 – and Starmer considered resigning.
— Tamara Cohen (@tamcohen) May 2, 2024
A Labour spokesperson said of the reported Hartlepool gain: “Keir Starmer pledged to change the Labour party after that result, and today’s win shows that this changed Labour party is ready to deliver the change that communities like Hartlepool are crying out for.
“Making gains here shows that the party is on track to win a general election and is firmly back in the service of working people.”
The 2021 Hartlepool byelection will be best remembered with pictures of a 30ft Boris Johnson balloon bobbing above the real Johnson’s head as he beamed at the victory.
Tory candidate Jill Mortimer – who defeated Labour rival Paul Williams by nearly 7,000 votes – hailed the result as a “truly historic” moment.
Labour holds Sunderland city council in first result of the night, according to partial count
We have our first council result of the night – from Sunderland, where, according to partial results tallied by the BBC, Labour has held the city council.
According to BBC News, Labour won the first four seats declared to ensure it retains control of the council, having entered the elections with 47 of the 75 seats.
The Guardian uses data from the Press Association which waits until all 25 seats are counted (which explains why our election tallies are different to those from the BBC and Sky, and why our results will appear later than theirs).
Prof Sir John Curtice, the psephologist and lead election analyst for the BBC, said that the city – where 61% voted for Brexit – has its own unique characteristics that makes it a good area for Reform to pick up votes.
“Above all this is a very Eurosceptic part of the country,” Curtice, who said that Reform has put a candidate in every single ward in Sunderland, told the BBC. “It is also somewhere where Ukip has done well in local elections in the past.
“We have now seen Reform outpoll the Conservatives in each of the ward results we have got in for Sunderland so far.”
Reform’s leader Richard Tice has claimed his party was outperforming the Tories in Sunderland.
“Outstanding early results in Sunderland,” he wrote in a post on X. “We expect to beat Tories in majority of 25 seats in Sunderland.”
Outstanding early results in Sunderland ….we expect to beat Tories in majority of 25 seats in Sunderland https://t.co/SpTOskO3zN
— Richard Tice 🇬🇧 (@TiceRichard) May 2, 2024
As well as to the city council in Sunderland, Reform is running a full slate of candidates in Bolton, where it is in alliance with Bolton for Change, a registered political party set up by two former candidates of the Brexit party.
Other places to watch in terms of Reform’s local elections campaign include Hartlepool, where Tice is to run again after coming third there in 2019, just over 1,000 votes behind the Tories.
You can read my colleague Ben Quinn’s profile of Reform’s election strategy here:
Helen Catt, a political correspondent from the BBC, has said the counting at the Blackpool South byelection vote has not begun yet. This is the most hotly anticipated vote of the night as a loss here could trigger a Tory leadership contest against Rishi Sunak. We are expecting results in the early hours of the morning (possibly between 2-4am).
Slow progress at the Blackpool South count. All ballot boxes are in but counting hasn’t yet started
— Helen Catt (@BBCHelenCatt) May 2, 2024
The Westminster byelection has been triggered by the resignation of former Conservative MP Scott Benton amid a lobbying scandal.
Nine candidates are vying to replace him in the House of Commons. On the face of it, Labour’s Chris Webb is favourite to win.
Labour said it was hopeful of taking back the seat, which Benton won with a majority of 3,690 in 2019, but the race for second place could be problematic for Sunak if the Tories are outflanked on the right by the Reform party.
Tory councillors predict poor result for party amid low turnout expectations
Conservative councillor Ron Shepherd on North east Lincolnshire council has been quoted by Sky News as saying:
National politics are always a factor. All the seats are going to be close tonight because it is a low turnout.
Some of the issues that affect local politics are out of our control. Coupled with a low turnout, it does not look too good.
The results are something of a culmination of our successes over the past seven years and this is the backlash.
Meanwhile, councillor Simon Bosher, leader of the Conservative group in Portsmouth, has been quoted as saying it is going to be a “tough evening” with lots of people expected to vote for other parties in protest of the government.
According to Toby Paine, a Local Democracy reporter for Portsmouth city council, Bosher said:
A lot of it is probably not due to the work of councillors, it’s more to do with conflating it with the national picture …
Cllr George Madgwick, leader of Portsmouth Independents Party, said he is expecting a “disastrous” turnout.
“I think it’ll be down across the whole city except for one or two wards,” Madgwick said.
Some psephologists have predicted the Conservatives could lose 500 council seats – about half of those the party is defending this time around – but Labour sources have said the figure is too ambitious.
Anneliese Dodds, the Labour party chair, has said the results of the Blackpool South byelection will be a “critical” measure of Rishi Sunak’s strength against the Labour party.
Labour sources are confident of victory in Blackpool South, with activists said to have reported large numbers of former Tory voters saying they would back Labour for the first time.
As we reported earlier (see post at 22:54), Labour’s national campaign coordinator, Pat McFadden, also highlighted the importance of Blackpool South, saying the “historic byelection” is the only chance for voters to “directly reject” Sunak’s Conservative party.
Dodds told Sky News:
The key election when it comes to looking at the overall strength of Rishi Sunak, I would say, against the Labour party is of course that byelection in Blackpool South.
It is a really critical place of course because in 2019 the Conservatives won almost 50% of the vote, so it will be really important to see what happens there …
The key thing is going to see whether Labour is moving forward in those areas where it is really critical that we build support before the next general election.
Of course it’s also going to be critical to see whether the Conservatives can pick up any seats.
If they can’t pick up seats in these elections, then they’re going to be even further behind than (former Conservative prime minister) John Major was in the run-up to the 1997 election.
Forecasts suggest the Tories could lose up to half of the council seats they are defending in England, with chancellor Jeremy Hunt saying the party expects to suffer “significant losses”.
With a general election expected later this year, the results from council, mayoral and police and crime commissioner contests and the Blackpool South parliamentary byelection will be closely scrutinised for signs of whether Labour’s national opinion poll leads can be turned into electoral success.
The Guardian’s political correspondent, Eleni Courea, has a useful guide on the seats up for grabs in the elections:
Counting is well under way with local and mayoral elections taking place across England and Wales (as well as a byelection being held in Blackpool South and police and crime commissioners being chosen across England and Wales):
There is frenzied speculation that a leadership challenge will be mounted against Rishi Sunak if the election results over the weekend are even more disastrous than anticipated.
The recent defection of the former Conservative health minister Dr Dan Poulter to Labour could further push rebellious Tories to plot against the prime minister.
The Guardian’s deputy political editor, Jessica Elgot, looks at the myriad of issues facing Sunak, who insists he is not “distracted” by his personal ratings lingering at record lows.
Election analyst Matt Singh has a useful thread going through the elections we will have results from overnight.
He says people should be wary of the usual spin the parties deploy before and after election results – either to manage expectations or to explain away losses.
Singh adds that it is already apparent that there is a “sizeable personal vote for incumbents”, which he says should not be taken as an accurate measure of any wider trends.
Incoming: Super Thursday results thread
UK Parliament by-election at Blackpool South
Metro mayoralties across England
London Assembly
Police and Crime Commissioners across England and Wales
Local council elections in parts of England— Matt Singh (@MattSingh_) May 2, 2024
Here are the front pages of tomorrow’s newspapers:
The Green party co-leader Carla Denyer said that she is anticipating “another record night” for the Greens, with the party boosting its councillor numbers for the fourth successive election.
More than 2,660 council seats are up for grabs, with the Green party defending just over 100.
Denyer said:
It has been a wonderful experience to be out on the doorstep listening to voters and understanding why their concerns over the cost of living, cuts to local services and the climate crisis are turning into votes for the Green party.
I want to thank every single voter who has gone to the polls today to vote for a fairer, greener country.
Our fantastic volunteers and candidates have been out knocking on doors, listening to voters and responding with a positive vision of what their Green vote would mean.
As counting begins, I look forward to another record night for the Green party. We have increased our councillor numbers at each of the last four elections – and I believe we can do so again.
That will lay the firmest of foundations for our general election campaign when we are going to do everything we can to get at least four Green MPs elected to parliament.
We know that having a Green in the council chamber or in parliament delivers for people, the community and the planet.”
The Greens have never been stronger in local government and will target Bristol, where they are already the largest party, writes Robert Ford, professor of political science at Manchester University.