US prisoner exchange with Iran looking more likely

By Jon Gambrell and Matthew Lee | Associated Press

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Iran has put five Iranian-American prisoners to house arrest, a U.S.-based lawyer said Thursday, a move coming as Tehran for months has suggested a prisoner swap was possible between it and Washington in exchange for billions of dollars frozen in South Korea. Iran did not immediately acknowledge the move.

The move comes amid months of heightened tensions between Iran and the U.S. A major American military buildup in the Persian Gulf is underway, with the possibility of armed U.S. troops boarding and guarding commercial ships traveling through the crucial Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of all oil traded passes.

It remains unclear whether the Iranian-Americans’ transfers reflect significant progress in a possible prisoner swap between the two countries. Iran in past months has overstated progress in talks, likely conducted with mediation from Oman and Qatar, on a potential trade.

The U.S. in March called remarks by Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian that a deal for a swap was close a “cruel lie.”

U.S.-based lawyer Jared Genser acknowledged the move, identifying three of the prisoners as Siamak Namazi, Emad Shargi, and Morad Tahbaz. Genser, who has represented Namazi, did not identify the fourth and fifth prisoners.

“The move by Iran of the American hostages from Evin Prison to an expected house arrest is an important development,” Genser said in a statement. “While I hope this will be the first step to their ultimate release, this is at best the beginning of the end and nothing more. But there are simply no guarantees about what happens from here.”

Sharghi’s sister, Neda Sharghi, also acknowledged the transfer.

“My family has faith in the work that President Biden and government officials have undertaken to bring our families home and hope to receive that news soon,” she said in a statement. “Until that point, I hope you can understand that we do not think it will be helpful to comment further.”

The U.S. State Department declined to immediately comment.

It remains unclear how many Iranian-Americans are held by Tehran, which does not recognize dual citizenship.

The three released prisoners cited by Genser whose identities are known are Namazi, who was detained in 2015 and later sentenced to 10 years in prison on internationally criticized spying charges; Shargi, a venture capitalist sentenced to 10 years in prison; and Tahbaz, a British-American conservationist of Iranian descent who was arrested in 2018 and also received a 10-year sentence.

Comments by U.S. officials in recent months had suggested there could be a fourth detainee in Iran, and an Iranian newspaper in August had reported there was a fifth prisoner, revealing the case amid apparent negotiations for the release.

Iran, meanwhile, has said it seeks the release of Iranian prisoners held in the U.S.

Iranian media in the past identified several prisoners of interest with cases tied to violations of U.S. export laws and restrictions on doing business with Iran.

The alleged violations include the transfer of funds through Venezuela and sales of dual-use equipment that the U.S. alleges could be used in Iran’s military and nuclear programs. Iran has been enriching uranium and stockpiling it as part of its advancing nuclear program.

Iran also wants access to assets frozen abroad, particularly some $7 billion in Iranian assets tied up in South Korean banks. Already, Tehran seized a South Korean oil tanker amid the dispute and threatened further retaliation in August.

“Definitely Iran will not remain silent, and we have many options that could harm the Koreans and we will certainly use them,” said Fadahossein Maleki, a member of Iran’s parliament who sits on its influential national security and foreign policy committee.

Iran and the U.S. have a history of prisoner swaps dating back to the 1979 U.S. Embassy takeover and hostage crisis following the Islamic Revolution. The most-recent major exchange between the two countries happened in 2016, when Iran came to a deal with world powers to restrict its nuclear program in return for an easing of sanctions.

Four American captives, including Washington Post journalist Jason Rezaian, flew home from Iran, and several Iranians in the United States won their freedom. That same day, the Obama administration airlifted $400 million in cash to Tehran.

Iran has received international criticism over its targeting of dual nationals amid tensions with the wider world. A United Nations panel has described “an emerging pattern involving the arbitrary deprivation of liberty of dual nationals.” The West accuses Iran of using foreign prisoners as bargaining chips in political negotiations, an allegation Tehran rejects.

Negotiations over a major prisoner swap faltered after then-President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the nuclear deal in 2018. From the following year on, a series of attacks and ship seizures attributed to Iran have raised tensions. While President Joe Biden entered office with hopes of restarting the deal, diplomatic negotiations on the accord have been stalled for a year.

It remains unclear how any possible deal would affect Biden, who now is ordering the Persian Gulf buildup. In 2016, then-President Barack Obama received withering criticism from Republicans over that prisoner swap, though he already was nearing the end of his second term. Biden will face re-election in November 2024, potentially against Trump.